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The GFS model is starting to indicate some changes to this very mild late fall weather pattern. November was the 5th warmest on record in Central Park. The model indicates a front will produce rain later this week and then a weather "clipper" system from the Great Lakes may produce some rain or snow showers this Saturday night or Sunday morning across the NYC metro area. Then next week a storm is forecast to develop over the Southeast and then track northeastward. But in keeping with the weather patter so far this month as well as for November, there is no cold high pressure in place to the north so that this will be primarily a rain event for the NYC metro area. A huge high pressure system plunges into the western half of the nation by next Thursday and Friday (often when the east is mild and west is cold). On Friday (December 23, 2011) low pressure over eastern Canada will drag a long cold front (with a very long latitudinal trough extending from eastern Canada to FL at 500 mb) across the eastern seaboard with mild air in place this will produce rain across much of the NYC metro area with cold air moving in behind the front on Christmas Eve, there could be a brief change to snow across the interior with flurries for NYC. Christmas Day looks to be dry across much of the nation with two hugh high pressure systems dominating most of the country. By the afternoon of December 26, 2011 there is practically no precipitation forecast anywhere in the US. A much different scenario than last winter when the huge Blizzard of December 26, 2011 was dumping more than 2 feet of snow across most of the tri-state region. The weather across the Northeast looks relatively dry and seasonably cold after the 26th through New Years Day. The only potential storm is forecast to move well south off the Southeast coast on December 29-30, 2011.
The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) remains in a highly positive phase with no blocking over Greenland. This positive NAO produces a westerly storm track and milder air with mostly rain across the Northeast. A weak La Nina is in place this winter which is expected to continue to extreme drought in TX with drier than normal conditions across the southern third of the nation including FL through February. Above normal precipitation is forecast through February for the upper Plains and the Great Lakes, normal precipitation is forecast for the Northeast. Temperatures with this La Nina pattern are forecast to be below normal for the upper plains and Great Lakes with below normal temperatures for the southern tier of the country. Normal temperatures are forecast for the Northeast. The NAO is trending to be less positive later this month and the last few 500 mb forecasts indicate a strong Icelandic Low which normally will pull down colder air into the lower 48 states. I would therefore expect to see the milder than normal weather continue for the rest of December with colder weather for the first half of January here in New York City.
George Wright is a Certified Consulting Meteorologist for Wright Weather Consulting, LLC. George is also a meteorologist with ABC News and Cablevision News 12. Our website is WrightWeather.com.
The temperature in Central Park at noon with snow is 33, it is 33 in White Plains and 34 at JFK. Snow is also falling in NJ, 33 in Caldwell and it is 34 in Teterboro. Snow is falling this afternoon across the NYC metro area, a large portion of PA, northern NJ and southern New England. Over a foot of snow is expected across parts of the Catskills in NY. The last time measurable snow fell in Central Park before Halloween was back in 1925 when 0.8-inch fell. Only three times since weather records began in Central Park back in 1869 has measurable snow been measured in October. A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for New York City, 2 to 4 inches of snow expected and a Wind Advisory is in effect for 55 mph gusts. A huge area of snow, sleet and freezing rain covers the Northeast. Moderate to heavy snow is now falling in Midtown. A foot or more of snow is forecast in upstate New York near Peekskill with as much as 8 inches in Westchester and Rockland Counties.
George Wright is a Certified Consulting Meteorologist for Wright Weather Consulting, LLC. George is also a meteorologist with ABC News and Cablevision News 12. Our website is WrightWeather.com.
A winter storm will produce up to a foot of snow in upstate New York and interior Connecticut this weekend. It looks like a white Halloween for a good portion of the New York metro area especially in the northern and western suburbs. A Winter Storm Warning is in effect for interior northern NJ, interior NY and CT. A Winter Weather Advisory is posted for all of New York City, northeastern NJ and coastal CT. The snow will begin early tomorrow morning and mix with or change to rain along the coast and in the city then change back to mainly snow Saturday night. Sunday and Halloween will be sunny.
George Wright is a Certified Consulting Meteorologist for Wright Weather Consulting, LLC. George is also a meteorologist with ABC News and Cablevision News 12. Our website is WrightWeather.com.
