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Tuesday, September 19, 2017

Hurricane Jose Pounding the Jersey Shore, NYC, Long Island and Southeast New England Today with Strong Winds, Showers and Rough Seas...

Hurricane Jose with 75 mph winds continues to track northward well east of Delaware today. The storm will begin to move northeastward this evening. Currently the storm is moving north at 7 mph, the central pressure is 28.82 inches.  The storm has produced rough seas, minor coastal flooding and wind gusts to 40 mph so far this afternoon. The greatest impacts will be felt over Suffolk County, Long Island and Southeast New England. The rain will end today as the storm moves away. Hurricane Maria which will produce catastrophic wind damage and flooding in Puerto Rico tomorrow is forecast to remain offshore. 
George Wright is a Certified Consulting Meteorologist for Wright Weather Consulting, LLC. Visit our website at WrightWeather.com. Follow George Wright on Twitter @gwweather.


























Hurr

Saturday, September 9, 2017

Irma Will Produce Devastating Impacts on Sunday Across Southern Florida as the Eye Moves Up the West Coast...

This is the latest Hurricane Warning Statement from the National Weather Service in Miami:

...HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...
...STORM SURGE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

* LOCATIONS AFFECTED
    - Miami
    - Miami Beach
    - Key Biscayne
    - Perrine
    - Princeton

* WIND
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Equivalent Strong Tropical Storm force
      wind
        - Peak Wind Forecast: 50-65 mph with gusts to 85 mph
        - Window for Tropical Storm force winds: until early Monday
          morning

    - CURRENT THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: High
        - The wind threat has decreased from the previous assessment.
        - Remain braced against the reasonable threat for hurricane
          force wind of 74 to 110 mph of equivalent Category 1 to 2
          intensity.
        - To be safe, efforts should fully focus on protecting life.
          Properties remain subject to extensive wind impacts.
        - Now is the time to urgently hide from the wind. Failure to
          adequately shelter may result in serious injury or loss of
          life. Remain sheltered until the hazardous wind subsides.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Unfolding
        - Potential impacts from the main wind event are unfolding.

* STORM SURGE
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Life-threatening storm surge possible
        - Peak Storm Surge Inundation: The potential for 7-10 feet
          above ground somewhere within surge prone areas
        - Window of concern: early Sunday morning until early Monday
          afternoon

    - CURRENT THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: Extreme
        - The storm surge threat has remained nearly steady from the
          previous assessment.
        - Emergency plans should include a reasonable threat for
          extreme storm surge flooding greater than 9 feet above
          ground.
        - To be safe, aggressively prepare for the potential of
          devastating to catastrophic storm surge flooding impacts.
          Evacuation efforts should now be brought to completion.
          Evacuations must be complete before driving conditions
          become unsafe.
        - Life-threatening inundation is possible. Failure to heed
          evacuation orders may result in serious injury, significant
          loss of life, or immense human suffering. Leave if
          evacuation orders are given for your area. Consider
          voluntary evacuation if recommended. Poor decisions may
          result in being cut off or needlessly risk lives.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Devastating to Catastrophic
        - Widespread deep inundation, with storm surge flooding
          greatly accentuated by powerful battering waves. Structural
          damage to buildings, with many washing away. Damage greatly
          compounded from considerable floating debris. Locations may
          be uninhabitable for an extended period.
        - Near-shore escape routes and secondary roads washed out or
          severely flooded. Flood control systems and barriers may
          become stressed.
        - Extreme beach erosion. New shoreline cuts possible.
        - Massive damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers.
          Numerous small craft broken away from moorings with many
          lifted onshore and stranded.

* FLOODING RAIN
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Flood Watch is in effect
        - Peak Rainfall Amounts: Additional 12-18 inches, with
          locally higher amounts

    - CURRENT THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: High
        - The flooding rain threat has remained nearly steady from
          the previous assessment.
        - Emergency considerations should include a threat of
          flooding.
        - Be safe and remain ready to protect against flooding rain
          impacts.
        - If flood related watches and warnings are in effect, heed
          recommended actions.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Extensive
        - Major rainfall flooding may prompt many evacuations and
          rescues.
        - Ditches and canals may rapidly overflow their banks in
          multiple places. Flood control systems and barriers may
          become stressed.
        - Flood waters can enter many structures within multiple
          communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or
          washed away. Many places where flood waters may cover
          escape routes. Streets, parking lots and underpasses become
          submerged. Driving conditions become dangerous. Many road
          and bridge closures with some weakened or washed out.

* TORNADO
    - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
        - Situation is favorable for tornadoes

    - CURRENT THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: Moderate
        - The tornado threat has remained nearly steady from the
          previous assessment.
        - Emergency considerations should include a reasonable threat
          for tornadoes.
        - Be safe and remain ready to protect against tornado
          impacts. Stay informed.
        - Listen for tornado watches and warnings. If a tornado
          approaches, quickly move to the safest place within your
          shelter.

    - POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Significant
        - The occurrence of scattered tornadoes can hinder the
          execution of emergency plans during tropical events.
        - Several places may experience tornado damage with a few
          spots of considerable damage, power loss, and
          communications failures.
        - Locations could realize roofs torn off frame houses, mobile
          homes demolished, boxcars overturned, large trees snapped
          or uprooted, vehicles tumbled, and small boats tossed
          about. Dangerous projectiles can add to the toll.

The worst impacts from Irma are now expected to be across Southwest Florida and along west coast from Key West to Tampa.  The storm came ashore last night along the northern coast of Cuba.  The last information on Irma from the National Hurricane Center:

BULLETIN
Hurricane Irma Advisory Number  42
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112017
1100 AM EDT Sat Sep 09 2017

...IRMA CONTINUES TO POUND THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA...
...FORECAST TO RESTRENGTHEN WHILE HEADING FOR SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE
KEYS...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.8N 79.8W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM ESE OF VARADERO CUBA
ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM SE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...941 MB...27.79 INCHES

The storm has weakened as it moved over Cuba last night. The storm is expected to intensity 
a little before making landfall across the Keys early Sunday morning.

George Wright is a Certified Consulting Meteorologist for Wright Weather Consulting, LLC. Visit our website at WrightWeather.com. Follow George Wright on Twitter @gwweather.