Flurries/Snow Showers Tonight....1st Snow of Season Forecast for Saturday Here in NYC Metro Area...

A cold front has generated a dusting in the suburbs tonight here in the NYC metro area. A few flurries fell in Manhattan with no accumulation. Sunshine will give way to increasing clouds on Friday with light snow after midnight and during the morning on Saturday. Models are forecasting 2 to 4 with perhaps 5 inches for the city but there is practically no upper-level support at 500 mb so the snow will be produced by overrunning of warm, moist air from the south over weak high pressure over New England. Typically this situation only produces 1 to 3 inches and since temperatures are forecast to rise above freezing, expect the accumulations to be on the lower range. But since this is the first snowfall since October 29, 2011 here in the city, it will be a noteworthy event.

The GFS indicates an active pattern over the next 16 days with mostly rain here in the NY metro region. The storm track continues to be very far west with low pressure tracking into the St. Lawrence River Valley. The NAO is still positive which forecasts little cold and snow for the Northeast. There was more than 6" of snow in the Seattle area during the last 48 hours. Alaska has seen record snowfalls with more than 15 feet so far in Cardova and Anchorage.

George Wright is a Certified Consulting Meteorologist for Wright Weather Consulting, LLC. George is also a meteorologist with ABC News and Cablevision News 12. Our website is WrightWeather.com.