Snow on Sunday and Monday, February 7-8, 2010 in Mid-Atlantic and NYC Area?

GFS long range model is forecasting a coastal storm for next Sunday into Monday February 8, 2010. The flow remains dry for most of this week and taking into account the overall very dry pattern for most of January here in the Northeast, this storm seems unlikely. The future models runs will be watched closely and it is still a long way out - 204 hours from the 7 PM model run this evening.

George Wright is a Certfied Consulting Meteorologist and President of Wright Weather Consulting, Inc. Our website is WrightWeather.com. George is also a broadcast meteorologist for Cablevision News 12.

Snow in South Jersey and Mid-Atlantic States..

A significant winter storm produced over a foot of snow in Richmond, VA and up to 10 inches in Virginia Beach on Saturday, January 30, 2010. The storm produced about 7 inches of snow in Atlantic City. The heaviest snow fell in Cape May County (up to 10 inches) as well as in Atlantic County and in the Atlantic City area. Here are a few selected snowfall totals received:

DELAWARE

DOVER 5.0
NEWARK 5.0
FRANKFORD 10.0
LEWES 7.9
DELMAR 7.0

MARYLAND

COLORA 5.5
CHESTERTOWN 7.0
ROCK HALL 6.0
QUEENSTOWN 5.5
EASTON 7.0
SAINT MICHAELS 6.0
TRAPPE 6.0

NEW JERSEY

ATLANTIC CITY 7.3
PLEASANTVILLE 7.3
NORTHFIELD 7.0
SOMERS POINT 7.0
ESTELL MANOR 6.5
LINWOOD 6.0
FOLSOM 5.5
HAMMONTON 5.4
TABERNACLE 2.7
MEDFORD TOWNSHIP 2.0
MAPLE SHADE 1.8
MOUNT HOLLY NWS 1.2
BLACKWOOD 3.5
ERMA 9.8
NORTH CAPE MAY 9.5
SCOTCH BONNET 9.5
NORTH VILLAS 9.0
MIDDLE TOWNSHIP 8.5
SEAVILLE 8.5
WEST CAPE MAY 8.5
CAPE MAY COURT HOUSE 8.3
NORTH CAPE MAY 8.0
BEASLEYS POINT 6.8
NEWPORT 5.9

PENNSYLVANIA

CLIFTON HEIGHTS 1.6
DREXEL HILL 1.3
ELKINS PARK 0.5
PHILADELPHIA 2.1

George Wright is a Certfied Consulting Meteorologist and President of Wright Weather Consulting, Inc. Our website is WrightWeather.com. George is also a broadcast meteorologist for Cablevision News 12.

Snowfall Totals and Wind gusts for January 28, 2010

Snowfall totals and peak wind gusts for today, January 28, 2010 here in the tri-state NY region:

Snowfall:

CONNECTICUT

NEW CANAAN 4.1 GREENWICH 4.0 DANBURY 3.0

NEW JERSEY

RIDGEWOOD 2.0 LYNDHURST 1.4 NEWARK 1.1

NEW YORK

RIVERDALE 1.7 NYC/CENTRAL PARK 1.3 STONY BROOK 1.3 ARMONK 3.0

Peak Wind Gusts:

NEW HAVEN, CT 41 MPH TETERBORO 40 MPH NEWARK 44 MPH MONTGOMERY 50 MPH

George Wright is a Certfied Consulting Meteorologist and President of Wright Weather Consulting, Inc. Our website is WrightWeather.com. George is also a broadcast meteorologist for Cablevision News 12.

Arctic Blast for the Northeast and Upper Midwest Through Weekend...

The weather maps are indicating a cold pool of air diving down from the Arctic. The is not as cold as it was for the first week of January 2010. The air also will not penetrate into the Deep South. The upper vortex circulating around the upper low at 500 mb will continue a northwest, dry flow of air in the upper levels keeping any precipitation away through the weekend here in the Northeast.

George Wright is a Certfied Consulting Meteorologist and President of Wright Weather Consulting, Inc. Our website is WrightWeather.com. George is also a broadcast meteorologist for Cablevision News 12.

Soaking Rain for Sunday Evening and Monday for NYC Metro Area

The mild trend continues for the Northeast and with the lack of cold air, another rain evening is forecast this weekend similar to the one that occurred only last Sunday. The storm track has been south and high pressure has kept the Northeast dry. Colder air will move in for late next week.

George Wright is a Certified Consulting Meteorologist and President of Wright Weather Consulting, Inc.

Strong Storm For Southern California...

A strong storm pounded southern California over the past 24 hours with up to 8 inches of rain, heavy snow in the mountains, strong winds and the lowest pressure ever recorded in a storm in the Los Angeles area (about 29.07 inches). Severe weather is forecast for southern California with hail, severe thunderstorms and strong wind gusts expected through this weekend. Here is an LA National Weather Service discussion:

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN)... CLASSIC SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA SEVERE WEATHER PATTERN ON TAP FOR THIS EVENING...LINGERING THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY. LOTS OF COLD AIR ALOFT WITH 500MB TEMPS BELOW MINUS 25 C... DEEP STACKED LOW OFF THE CENTRAL COAST OF CALIFORNIA...A POWERFUL 300MB JET SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO AND LOTS OF MOISTURE. SEVERAL REPORTS OF LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF SEVERAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGS THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION TO THE WIND AND HAIL..VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WERE BEING REPORTED THROUGHOUT THE REGION. ONE GAGE REPORTED 4 TENTHS OF AN INCH IN LESS THAN TEN MINUTES. SOME OF THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS WERE NEAR THE MORRIS BURN AREA WHICH PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR DEBRIS FLOWS FOR THAT AREA. WE MAY SEE A FEW BREAKS OVERNIGHT...BUT RADAR...SATELLITE AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATES THAT THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER...ALONG WITH FLASH FLOODING AND DEBRIS FLOWS IN ALL THE BURN AREAS...WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. ALONG WITH THE RAIN...HEAVY SNOW IS FALLING IN THE MOUNTAINS. ONE SPOTTER IN NORTHERN VENTURA COUNTY REPORTED 18 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE LAST 12 HOURS...WITH HEAVY SNOW CONTINUING. AT THE HIGHER LEVELS... SNOW WILL BE MEASURED IN FEET. SNOW LEVELS ARE RIGHT AROUND 4000 FEET CURRENTLY...BUT AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN TONIGHT THOSE SHOULD FALL TO 3000 FEET...WITH POSSIBLY SOME NON-STICKING SNOW AS LOW AS 2500 FEET ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

George Wright is a Certified Consulting Meteorologist and President of Wright Weather Consulting, Inc. Our website is Wright Weather.com. George is also a meteorologist with Cablevision News 12.

Brutal Cold Continues in Florida...A Cold Rain in South Florida

All time record low was set in Key West Thursday morning, 47 shattering the old record set back in 1897. Here is a discussion from the Miami National Weather Service earlier today:
..CRAZY, COLD MISERABLE SOUTH FL DAY... FREEZE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PARTS OF THE AREA... UPDATE...SEVERAL UPDATES THIS MORNING: TEMPS PLUMMETED ACROSS SOUTH FL THIS MORNING AND WITH THE CLOUDS/LIGHT RAIN AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ..SEE NO REASON TEMPS WILL BUDGE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WHICH IS EXACTLY WHAT WRF SHOWS. SO UPDATED THE TEMP FCST TO GO WITH THE EXPECTED STEADY TEMPS ALL AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ALSO INCREASED POPS SKY TO WHAT WE HAVE WHICH WILL BE OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE THROUGHOUT THE DAY BEFORE THINGS CLEAR THIS EVENING. FREEZE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF COLLIER, HENDRY, GLADES, AND PALM BEACH COUNTIES FOR TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. GIVEN SUCH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION SEEN THIS MORNING...CONFIDENCE HAS GROWN FOR FREEZING TEMPS TO OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE SERVICE AREA...AND SO THIS WARNING WAS ISSUED. TEMPS OF 25-30 ARE EXPECTED ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THIS REGION...TO AROUND FREEZING ACROSS THE NAPLES/WEST PALM BEACH METROPOLITAN AREAS. FREEZE WATCH CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR BROWARD, MIAMI-DADE AND MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES. THERE IS A HIGHER DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN FREEZING TEMPS OCCURRING ACROSS THIS REGION...SO WILL WAIT FOR THE 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE CYCLE AND MAKE AN ASSESSMENT ON POSSIBLE UPGRADES THIS AFTERNOON. NEED TO MENTION THE FACT THAT THERE HAS BEEN SOME SLEET ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL FLORIDA ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF TAMPA TO ORLANDO. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWS WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS CRASHING TO BELOW 1 FT ACROSS THE LAKE REGION BY 00Z THIS EVENING. IT IS GOING TO END UP BEING A RACE BETWEEN THE COLD AIR AND ENDING PRECIP. THE PRECIP LIKELY WILL END BEFORE IT GETS COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ANYTHING MORE THAN RAIN ACROSS THE SERVICE AREA. HOWEVER...AS HAS BEEN MENTIONED THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS...THERE IS A REMOTE POSSIBILITY OF A LITTLE SLEET MIXING IN WITH THE LIGHT RAIN BY THIS EVENING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD...MAINLY NORTH OF AN EVERGLADES CITY TO WEST PALM BEACH LINE. THE PROBABILITY OF THIS OCCURRING IS LOW ENOUGH TO CONTINUE TO EXCLUDE THIS MENTION IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...AND IF IT OCCURRED IT WOULD HAVE NO ADVERSE IMPACTS. IT`S CRAZY TO EVEN HAVE TO DISCUSS THIS IN SOUTH FLORIDA!!

The Jacksonville, NWS reported:

SLIGHT CHANCE OF SLEET OR SNOW FLURRIES THIS MORNING...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW FLURRIES OR SLEET IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING... MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ST AUGUSTINE TO GAINESVILLE. NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. A HARD FREEZE WILL OCCUR TONIGHT ALONG WITH WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS.

George Wright is a Certified Consulting Meteorologist and President of Wright Weather Consulting, Inc.

Area Forecast Discussion from the NWS in Jacksonville

Area forecast discussion from the National Weather Service in Jacksonville:

839 PM EST FRI JAN 8 2010

.UPDATE...
SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND ARCTIC
COLD AND DRY AIRMASS CONTINUES TO PLUNGE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA WITH SLOWLY FALLING TEMPS THROUGH THE 30S. WIND
CHILLS HAVE ALREADY DIPPED INTO THE 20S ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

NOT MUCH CHANGE TO FORECAST PACKAGE...MADE A TWEAK TO THE WIND
CHILL ADVISORY AND HAVE EXPANDED ACRS NORTHEAST FLORIDA AS IT
LOOKS TO BE A LOCK TO SEE INDICES LESS THAN 25 DEGREES AS WELL AS
WINDS REMAINING AROUND 10 MPH. SOUTHEAST GEORGIA IS A MUCH TOUGHER
CALL...AS WIND CHILL INDICES LESS THAN 15 DEGREES MAY BE REALIZED
BY MORNING BUT WINDS WILL LIKELY HAVE DROPPED TO LESS THAN 10 MPH
AND DURATIONS MAY END UP LESS THAN THE REQUIRED 4 HOURS.
NONETHELESS IT WILL BE A VERY COLD SUNRISE ACROSS THE REGION AS
MIN TEMPS BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S INLAND AND HARD
FREEZE WARNINGS APPEAR ON TRACK. MIN TEMPS CLOSER TO THE COAST
AND ALONG THE ST JOHNS RIVER BASIN WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S WITH
FREEZE CONDITIONS AS WELL.

18Z MODEL SUITE STILL ON TRACK TRYING TO PUSH MID LEVEL MOISTURE
AND LIFT ALONG WITH THE MID LEVEL TROF PASSAGE TOWARD MORNING.
ABUNDANT MID/HI CLOUDS WILL REMAIN ACRS THE FORECAST AREA AND
SLIGHT CHANCES OF FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IS STILL
POSSIBLE SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ST AUGUSTINE TO GAINESVILLE. WILL
CONTINUE TO INCLUDE IN ZFP/GRIDS WITH NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME AS WITH DRY ATMOSPHERE NEAR THE SURFACE EXPECT MOST OF
THE FLURRIES TO EVAPORATE BEFORE THEY REACH THE GROUND...BUT
CONDITIONS JUST AFTER SUNRISE SAT MORNING WILL BE INTERESTING.


George Wright is a Certified Consulting Meteorologist and President of Wright Weather Consulting, Inc.

Brutal, Record Cold in Florida, Chance of Flurries Saturday Morning...

Latest Forecast for Jacksonville, Florida:

Overnight: A slight chance of snow showers and sleet. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 30. Wind chill values as low as 22. North wind around 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Saturday: A slight chance of snow showers before 1pm. Cloudy through mid morning, then gradual clearing, with a high near 44. Wind chill values as low as 21. Northwest wind between 11 and 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Saturday Night: Clear, with a low around 26. Wind chill values as low as 19. Northwest wind between 8 and 10 mph.

Sunday: Sunny, with a high near 46. Wind chill values as low as 18 early. Breezy, with a north wind between 9 and 15 mph.

George Wright is a Certified Consulting Meteorologist and President of Wright Weather Consulting, Inc.

Rain, Snow and Sleet....for FLORIDA!!!!

The major cold outbreak continues to move southward. A trough at 500 mb will lead to the chance of precipitation across Florida on Friday afternoon into Saturday morning. The temperatures are cold enough at the surface and aloft for rain, snow and sleet across central Florida northward to Jacksonville on Friday. No accumulation is expected but there could be a little big of ice accumulation on grassy surfaces. The 850 mb temperature is forecasted to be at or below 32 degrees and there is enough moisture, so there is a very good chance that rain will begin on Friday and then mix with and change to sleet and then to snow late Friday night and early in the morning on Saturday. The most unusual aspect of this weather pattern is how long the cold has lasted. The temperatures even during the day in Florida this week have been below 65 degrees. The freezing line at 850 mb (approx. 3000 ft) moves south of Miami (see GFS output above) by Monday. This cold outbreak will cause major problems for agricultural interests. For the NYC metro area, we'll see a little light snow on Friday but other than that, it will be dry and cold through most of next week.

George Wright is a Certified Consulting Meteorologist and President of Wright Weather Consulting, Inc. Our website is WrightWeather.com.

Light Snow for Mid-Atlantic and Southern New England Thursday and Friday...Cold for Weekend!

A weak storm is forecast to move off the Delmarva Penninsula Thursday and Friday generating a large area of light snow. Less than 2 inches are expected near the storm's track. The latest GFS has produced a little more developed low and a more northerly advance of the snow shield. But right now it looks as if it will only be a light snowfall everywhere. There will be a cold blast in the wake of this storm and heavy lake effect snows will fall over upstate NY and PA. The major cold wave will continue to impact Florida and the Deep South with a chance of flurries this weekend in Florida and Georgia.

George Wright is a Certifed Consulting Meteorologist and President of Wright Weather Consulting, Inc. Our website is Wright Weather.com. George Wright is also a meteorologist with Cablevision's News 12.

Arctic Blast This Week...Even Colder This Weekend..Major Cold for Florida!

The blocking pattern that is present of eastern Canada continues to funnel down very cold air from the Arctic. Temperatures have been below normal across all of the Midwest, the Northeast, the Mid-Atlantic, the Ohio Valley and the Deep South for the past week. And the below normal temperature trend will continue. The Florida growers are taking precautions to protect their crops. Freezing or below freezing temperatures will occur tonight and for the next several nights all of Florida except for the extreme south. But even just to the west of Miami, a freeze warning is in effect tonight. The NAM model continues to bring down a northerly flow of air from right out of the Arctic tundras and that trend will continue with a reinforcement of the cold air this upcoming weekend. For the Northeast, there may be a little light snow or flurries as a storm passes well to our south and east. The long-term GFS is trending toward very cold air this weekend over much of the lower 48 states with a moderating trend taking over across the county after January 14th.

The National Weather Service in Miami, FL reported today:

Longest Stretch of Much Below Normal Temperatures in 15 to 25 Years Possible... Temperatures are expected to remain much below normal over all of south Florida this week, with the possibility of even colder temperatures this upcoming weekend. It is not unheard of to have freezing or near-freezing temperatures in south Florida each winter. In fact, inland areas south and west of Lake Okeechobee experience freezing temperatures at least once a year on average. Over the metro and coastal areas of south Florida, freezing temperatures are less frequent, but even in these areas freezing temperatures have occurred about every 5 to 10 years on average. Temperatures drop to at least 35 about every 1 to 2 years in the Naples area, and about every 2 years in the outlying areas of southeast Florida. For the urban areas of Miami/Fort Lauderdale, temperatures drop to at least 35 degrees about 2 to 3 times a decade, At West Palm Beach, the average is about every 1 to 2 years. What is more noteworthy about the current cold snap is the duration of the event. Typical south Florida cold snaps last about 2-3 days before winds switch to an easterly direction and blow warmer Atlantic air across the region. Temperatures have dropped to below 50 degrees for three consecutive mornings over almost all of south Florida, with temperatures dropping to 45 or lower from Collier County east to Palm Beach County and points north. The latest forecast calls for lows to drop below 45 degrees over all of south Florida through Thursday morning. This would give 6 consecutive days of sub-50 and/or 45 degree-or-lower temperatures.

George Wright is a Certified Consulting Meteorologist and President of Wright Weather Consulting, Inc. Our website is WrightWeather.com.

GFS Indicates Weaker Storm and Farther East Track for Friday

The latest 00Z Run of the GFS model is now producing a weaker trough and a storm that passes well to the south and east of the Tri-State New York region. The GFS was keeping any storm that formed well to our south and east in earlier runs as well. The shortwave trough weakens as it moves eastward and the track of the storm is well off-shore. The trough does not sharpen, thereby enhancing the positive voticity advection and upper divergence over the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. The moist southerly jet does not supply much moisture. This storm pattern needs to be watched closely in later runs this week.

George Wright is a Certified Consulting Meteorologist and President of Wright Weather Consulting, Inc. Our website is WrightWeather.com.

Snow on Friday for NYC Metro Area?

The latest forecast guidance from the NAM and GFS continue to keep the weather cold and relatively dry Monday through Wednesday with lake effect snows near the Great Lakes and the chance of a few flurries and snow showers with the passage of a short wave trough on Wednesday. The main focus will be a very strong shortwave this is forecast to dig down across the northern Rockies after 72 hrs. This energy is forecast to track east and is predicted to develop a storm near the Mid-Atlantic states Thursday and track it to the northeast on Friday. The present GFS track keeps the storm well offshore. However, what has happened with the GFS for the last few years has been to forecast a more westerly track. The ECMWF model also generates a coastal storm with a cold, all snow track on Friday. The future runs will be watched closely on this storm. The 500 mb GFS is forecasting a classic upper-air pattern for a significant snowstorm for the Northeast.

George Wright is a Certified Consulting Meteorologist and President of Wright Weather Consulting, Inc. Our website is WrightWeather.com.

Wind Advisory Through 6 PM Sunday for NYC Tri-State Region...COLD!

A very strong storm south of Nova Scotia will "retrograde" or move in a southwesterly direction tonight. As it moves towards Cape Cod tonight, the strongest winds will occur late this evening through Sunday morning. The storm will result in wind gusts to 50 mph or more here in the NYC metro region with wind chills as low as -10 degrees. The wind will continue into Sunday afternoon and the National Weather Service has issued a Wind Advisory for gusts to 50 mph through 6 PM on Sunday. As much as 2 to 5 inches of snow has fallen today in eastern LI and there may be a little more snow out there tonight and a chance of a flurry or two closer to the city. Sunday will be sunny and cold with highs in the 20s. There is a large, strong high pressure system that is contributing to the very tight pressure gradient over the northeast.

George Wright is a Certified Consulting Meteorologist and President of Wright Weather Consulting, Inc. Our website is WrightWeather.com.

Forecast is for Wind and COLD Weather This Weekend...Cold Weather Continues This Week!

The overall weather pattern will be colder than normal for the next several days in the NYC Tri-State area as well as nearly the entire eastern half of the country. As I mentioned in posts last week, there will be freezing temperatures early this week along the Gulf coast and into northern Florida. A storm will intensify off the coast of New England on Saturday producing very strong winds and a little light snow over eastern Long Island that could produce 1 to 2 inches of snow with no more than scattered flurries and snow showers in and around the city. The main feature will be the strong winds circulating around the storm that will gust to 40 to 50 mph from the northwest which will likely result in a Wind Advisory for the NYC metro area on Saturday afternoon into at least Sunday afternoon. Wind chills will be down into the single digits to near zero degrees with daytime highs not climbing out of the mid to upper 20s. The surface maps above indicate the tight isobaric gradient that will develop as this low strengthens off the coast of New England. The closed cyclonic flow at 500 mb will gradually move northeast which will result in a broad trough over the eastern third of the nation that will funnel down the cold air to the Deep South. Look for lake effect snows that could be heavy in upstate New York and Pennsylvania for the next two or three days. The long term trend for the next two weeks from the GFS continues the cold and relatively dry pattern with not much in the way of an active southerly branch of the jetstream. A very strong impulse of energy from central Canada is forecast by the GFS to dive down in the northwesterly 500 mb flow resulting in a potential for 1 to 3 inches of snow for our area Thursday night or Friday. No major snowstorms are forecast for the next week to 10 days.

George Wright is a Certified Consulting Meteorologist and President of Wright Weather Consulting, Inc. Our website is WrightWeather.com.