The latest 00Z Run of the GFS model is now producing a weaker trough and a storm that passes well to the south and east of the Tri-State New York region. The GFS was keeping any storm that formed well to our south and east in earlier runs as well. The shortwave trough weakens as it moves eastward and the track of the storm is well off-shore. The trough does not sharpen, thereby enhancing the positive voticity advection and upper divergence over the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. The moist southerly jet does not supply much moisture. This storm pattern needs to be watched closely in later runs this week.
George Wright is a Certified Consulting Meteorologist and President of Wright Weather Consulting, Inc. Our website is WrightWeather.com.
George Wright is a Certified Consulting Meteorologist and President of Wright Weather Consulting, Inc. Our website is WrightWeather.com.
