Area forecast discussion from the National Weather Service in Jacksonville:
839 PM EST FRI JAN 8 2010
.UPDATE...
SURFACE COLD FRONT NOW WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND ARCTIC
COLD AND DRY AIRMASS CONTINUES TO PLUNGE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA WITH SLOWLY FALLING TEMPS THROUGH THE 30S. WIND
CHILLS HAVE ALREADY DIPPED INTO THE 20S ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO FORECAST PACKAGE...MADE A TWEAK TO THE WIND
CHILL ADVISORY AND HAVE EXPANDED ACRS NORTHEAST FLORIDA AS IT
LOOKS TO BE A LOCK TO SEE INDICES LESS THAN 25 DEGREES AS WELL AS
WINDS REMAINING AROUND 10 MPH. SOUTHEAST GEORGIA IS A MUCH TOUGHER
CALL...AS WIND CHILL INDICES LESS THAN 15 DEGREES MAY BE REALIZED
BY MORNING BUT WINDS WILL LIKELY HAVE DROPPED TO LESS THAN 10 MPH
AND DURATIONS MAY END UP LESS THAN THE REQUIRED 4 HOURS.
NONETHELESS IT WILL BE A VERY COLD SUNRISE ACROSS THE REGION AS
MIN TEMPS BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S INLAND AND HARD
FREEZE WARNINGS APPEAR ON TRACK. MIN TEMPS CLOSER TO THE COAST
AND ALONG THE ST JOHNS RIVER BASIN WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S WITH
FREEZE CONDITIONS AS WELL.
18Z MODEL SUITE STILL ON TRACK TRYING TO PUSH MID LEVEL MOISTURE
AND LIFT ALONG WITH THE MID LEVEL TROF PASSAGE TOWARD MORNING.
ABUNDANT MID/HI CLOUDS WILL REMAIN ACRS THE FORECAST AREA AND
SLIGHT CHANCES OF FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IS STILL
POSSIBLE SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ST AUGUSTINE TO GAINESVILLE. WILL
CONTINUE TO INCLUDE IN ZFP/GRIDS WITH NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME AS WITH DRY ATMOSPHERE NEAR THE SURFACE EXPECT MOST OF
THE FLURRIES TO EVAPORATE BEFORE THEY REACH THE GROUND...BUT
CONDITIONS JUST AFTER SUNRISE SAT MORNING WILL BE INTERESTING.
George Wright is a Certified Consulting Meteorologist and President of Wright Weather Consulting, Inc.
