Selected Wind and Rainfall Reports from Hurricane Irene

The peak wind was 91 mph measured in Sayville, Long Island and the highest rainfall was 11.48" in Tuxedo Park, NY.

CONNECTICUT

MONROE 7.40
DANBURY AIRPORT 6.34
WOLCOTT 6.50

NEW JERSEY

GARFIELD 9.06
LYNDHURST 7.50
ORANGE 9.72
BLOOMFIELD 9.00
NEWARK AIRPORT 8.73
HARRISON 7.63
WAYNE 10.20
MOUNTAINSIDE 8.40

NEW YORK

PLAINVIEW 5.20
CENTRAL PARK 6.71
TUXEDO PARK 11.48  
NYC/LA GUARDIA 5.37
NYC/JFK AIRPORT 4.58
NORTHPORT 6.78  
SHIRLEY AIRPORT 1.15   
YONKERS 8.15   

PEAK WIND GUSTS
CONNECTICUT

BRIDGEPORT AIRPORT 63
NEW HAVEN 58

NEW JERSEY

NEWARK AIRPORT 53
CALDWELL AIRPORT 40
1 NNE SAINT GEORGE 70
BAYONNE 52
PERTH AMBOY JUNCTION 67

NEW YORK

1 SE SYOSSET MOBILE 79
BAYVILLE 67
CENTRAL PARK 60
NYC/LA GUARDIA 67
NYC/JFK AIRPORT 59
SAYVILLE 91
WHITE PLAINS 48

George Wright is a Certified Consulting Meteorologist for Wright Weather Consulting, LLC. George is also a meteorologist with ABC News and Cablevision News 12. Our website is WrightWeather.com.

Near Record Storm Surge at Battery, NYC

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
944 AM EDT SUN AUG 28 2011
AT 8:42 AM EDT THIS MORNING THE TIDE LEVEL AT THE BATTERY REACHED 9.5 FEET MLLW. THIS IS THE SIXTH HIGHEST LEVEL EVER RECORDED AT THE BATTERY. AT 9:06 AM A MAXIMUM SURGE OF 4.5 FEET OCCURRED WITH THIS HIGH TIDE IN COMBINATION WITH THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE.

OTHER NOTABLE LEVELS REACHED INCLUDE THE TOP TWO OF 11.2 FEET MLLW AND 10.9 FEET MLLW WHICH OCCURRED DURING THE HURRICANE OF SEPTEMBER 1821 AND HURRICANE DONNA IN 1960 RESPECTIVELY...AND 9.6 FEET MLLW DURING THE NOREASTER OF DECEMBER 1992.

George Wright is a Certified Consulting Meteorologist for Wright Weather Consulting, LLC. George is also a meteorologist with ABC News and Cablevision News 12. Our website is WrightWeather.com.

Latest Discussion from New York NWS

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
HURRICANE IRENE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
913 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2011
...IRENE LASHING THE VIRGINIA TIDEWATER REGION AND SOUTHERN
DELMARVA PENINSULA WITH HEAVY RAINS AND HURRICANE FORCE WIND
GUSTS...
.NEW INFORMATION...
UPDATED STORM INFORMATION.
.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS IN SELECT LOCATIONS AND COASTAL WATER LEGS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK...
NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.
.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A HURRICANE WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS... NORTHERN FAIRFIELD...NORTHERN NEW HAVEN...NORTHERN MIDDLESEX... NORTHERN NEW LONDON...SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD...SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN...
SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX...SOUTHERN NEW LONDON...EASTERN PASSAIC... HUDSON...WESTERN BERGEN...EASTERN BERGEN...WESTERN ESSEX... EASTERN ESSEX...WESTERN UNION...EASTERN UNION...PUTNAM...
ROCKLAND...NORTHERN WESTCHESTER...SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER...NEW YORK
(MANHATTAN)...BRONX...RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)...KINGS (BROOKLYN)...NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK...NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK... SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK...SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK...NORTHERN QUEENS...
NORTHERN NASSAU...SOUTHERN QUEENS AND SOUTHERN NASSAU.

FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A HURRICANE WARNING CONTINUES FOR ALL OF LONG ISLAND AND CONNECTICUT COASTAL WATERS AND NEW YORK HARBOR. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...
WESTERN PASSAIC...ORANGE. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK...
NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT. PLEASE LISTEN CLOSELY FOR ANY FLOOD WARNINGS THAT MIGHT BE IN EFFECT FOR YOUR AREA.

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK...NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY...SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. PLEASE LISTEN CLOSELY FOR ANY TORNADO
WARNINGS THAT MIGHT BE IN EFFECT FOR YOUR AREA.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 9 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.9N...LONGITUDE 75.6W. THIS WAS ABOUT 280 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF NEW YORK CITY NY...OR ABOUT 350 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MONTAUK POINT NY. STORM MOTION WAS NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 16 MPH. STORM INTENSITY WAS 80 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
HURRICANE IRENE CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTH NORTHEAST ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND WILL REACH JUST SOUTH OF NEW YORK CITY AND LONG ISLAND BY SUNDAY MORNING. OUTER RAIN BANDS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA THIS EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE AS THESE BANDS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE IN TORRENTIAL RAIN AND STRENGTHENING WINDS LATE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. THE WORST CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH
DAMAGING WINDS...FLOODING RAINS...AND SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING.

WHEN MAKING DECISIONS...DO NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK...AS THE IMPACTS OF THE HURRICANE WILL BE FELT OVER A LARGE AREA DUE TO THE SIZE OF THE STORM.

DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK...INTENSITY AND TIMING OF THE HURRICANE...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING DAMAGE IF THE GREATEST SURGE COINCIDES WITH THE TIMES OF
HIGH TIDES ON SUNDAY. THIS SURGE WILL BE EXACERBATED BY ACCOMPANYING LARGE...DESTRUCTIVE...AND LIFE THREATENING WAVES.

THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR 6 TO 12 INCHES OF RAIN WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. BASED ON RECENT HEAVY RAINS...IF THESE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OCCUR...MODERATE TO MAJOR RIVER FLOODING IS LIKELY. SIGNIFICANT AND WIDESPREAD URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE. AS A RESULT A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT.

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON AROUND 1230 AM EDT...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT.

NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX- NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN- SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-EASTERN PASSAIC-HUDSON- WESTERN BERGEN-EASTERN BERGEN-WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX- WESTERN UNION-EASTERN UNION-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-
SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX- RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK- NORTHERN QUEENS-NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU-
913 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2011

...HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...
...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...THE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS 3 TO 10 PERCENT. ALSO...THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS UP TO 91 PERCENT.

...WINDS...
AS HURRICANE IRENE APPROACHES...SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATE THIS EVENING...WITH HURRICANE FORCE WINDS DEVELOPING EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. MAXIMUM WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 55 TO 75 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS UP TO 85 MPH.

DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY. HOMES MAY HAVE DAMAGE TO SHINGLES... SIDING...GUTTERS AND WINDOWS...ESPECIALLY IF THESE ITEMS ARE NOT PROPERLY SECURED. LOOSE OUTDOOR ITEMS WILL BECOME AIRBORNE...CAUSING ADDITIONAL DAMAGE AND POSSIBLE INJURY. POWER LINES WILL BE KNOCKED DOWN BY FALLING TREES...RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD POWER
OUTAGES. MANY LARGE BRANCHES OF TREES WILL BE SNAPPED...AND A NUMEROUS TREES WILL BE UPROOTED.

...TORNADOES...
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS LONG ISLAND...COASTAL CONNECTICUT...AND THE NEW YORK CITY METRO AREA AS INTENSE RAIN BANDS MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH TONIGHT.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
STORM SURGE IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON TRACK...INTENSITY...AND SPEED OF THE STORM AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST. THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE POSE A SERIOUS THREAT WITH SEVERAL FEET OF WATER INUNDATION POSSIBLE ALONG COASTAL LOCATIONS.

BASED ON THE FORECAST TRACK OF HURRICANE IRENE...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR 4 TO 8 FEET OF SURGE ACROSS WESTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND AND NEW YORK HARBOR...WITH 3 TO 5 FT OF SURGE ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND AND NEW YORK CITY...PECONIC AND GARDINERS BAYS...AND EASTERN LONG ISLAND FROM EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING INTO EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THESE TIDAL CONDITIONS WILL BE AGGRAVATED BY ACCOMPANYING LARGE...DESTRUCTIVE...AND LIFE THREATENING WAVES ON TOP OF THE STORM SURGE.

HIGH TIDE ACROSS NEW YORK HARBOR AND THE SOUTH SHORE OF WESTERN LONG ISLAND IS AROUND 8 AM SUNDAY. IN A WORST CASE SCENARIO...WATER LEVELS OF 8 TO 10 FT ABOVE MSL ARE POSSIBLE.HIGH TIDE ACROSS WESTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND IS AROUND 11 AM SUNDAY. IN A WORST CASE SCENARIO...WATER LEVELS OF 10 TO 11 FT ABOVE MSL ARE POSSIBLE.HIGH TIDE ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND IS AROUND 9 AM SUNDAY. IN A WORST CASE SCENARIO...WATER LEVELS OF 7 TO 8 FT ABOVE MSL ARE POSSIBLE.THERE IS A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF OCCURRENCE OF THE WORST CASE
SCENARIO.

...INLAND FLOODING...
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED. SEE THE LATEST FORECAST FOR THE MOST UPDATED INFORMATION. LISTEN FOR
POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS FOR YOUR LOCATION...AND BE READY TO ACT IF FLOODING RAINS OCCUR....COASTAL HAZARDS...
INCREASINGLY LARGE SWELLS ARRIVING FROM HURRICANE IRENE WILL CREATE HIGH SURF...SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION AND WASHOVERS ALONG THE ATLANTIC FACING COASTLINE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.SIGNIFICANT BEACH EROSION IS ALSO LIKELY ALONG THE COASTLINE OF LONG ISLAND SOUND AND PECONIC AND GARDINERS BAYS DUE TO THE SURGE AND BATTERING SURF.


George Wright is a Certified Consulting Meteorologist for Wright Weather Consulting, LLC. George is also a meteorologist with ABC News and Cablevision News 12. Our website is WrightWeather.com.

Latest NAM and Other Graphics for Irene

The latest forecast is on track for a landfall near NYC/Nassau County.  The new moon will cause high tides and the storm surge is expected to be 4 to 8 feet.

George Wright is a Certified Consulting Meteorologist for Wright Weather Consulting, LLC. George is also a meteorologist with ABC News and Cablevision News 12. Our website is WrightWeather.com.

Latest Discussion from NJ National Weather Service on Irene

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1050 AM EDT SAT AUG 27 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
HURRICANE IRENE WILL IMPACT OUR REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. AS THE
REMNANTS OF THE SYSTEM MOVE UP INTO EASTERN CANADA ON MONDAY, HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE WEST SHOULD BEGIN TO BUILD INTO EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA, NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND, DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY. THE
HIGH IS FORECAST TO INFLUENCE OUR REGION FOR MUCH OF THE NEW WEEK.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...-- Changed Discussion --
**SIGNIFICANT TO DAMAGING AFFECTS FROM HURRICANE IRENE ACROSS THE REGION ESPECIALLY LATER TODAY THROUGH ABOUT MIDDAY SUNDAY.** BASED ON THE NHC WINDS AS WELL AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS, IT APPEARS THAT OUR FAR WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN ZONES MAY VERY WELL EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. AS A RESULT, WE EXPANDED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING TO COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA /WFO`S CTP AND BGM HAVE ISSUED WIND RELATED HEADLINES/. IT APPEARS SOME DRY AIR IS BEING ENTRAINED INTO THE HURRICANE AS THE CONVECTION HAS REALLY BEEN ERODING ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. BASED ON THE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT OBSERVATIONS, DESPITE PLENTY OF WIND AT 700 MB IT APPEARS IT IS HAVING A TOUGH TIME REALLY MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE PLUS THE STORM HAS LOST SOME OF ITS ORGANIZATION. AS A RESULT OF THIS AND EVENTUAL LAND INTERACTION, NHC HAS LOWERED THE INTENSITY AS IT TRACKS BY OUR AREA SUNDAY. THIS IS A LARGE HURRICANE, THEREFORE DO NOT LET YOUR GUARD DOWN. EVERYONE SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR THIS LARGE STORM AS IT TAKES AIM ON OUR CWA. A PLAN SHOULD NOW BE IN PLACE, AND KEEP UPDATED ON THE WEATHER FORECASTS. CHECK THE HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION. THE FIRST MAJOR RAIN BAND HAD MOVED ONSHORE AND INTO SOUTHERN NJ, CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN DELAWARE AND MOST OF THE MARYLAND EASTERN SHORE AS OF LATE THIS MORNING. WE WERE STARTING TO SEE SMALL SCALE CIRUCLATIONS IN THE LOWER LEVELS MOVING ONTO THE COAST JUST SOUTH OF DELAWARE. GUSTS WERE ABOUT 30 KNOTS ON LAND OVER OUR FAR SOUTHERN ZONES. THE EVENT HAS BEGUN FOR OUR AREA. WE CONTINUE TO CONSIDER A COASTAL FRONT THAT HAS MOSTLY SET UP SHOP FARTHER INLAND. THE LOCATION OF THIS FEATURE WILL BE CRUCIAL IN DETERMINING WHERE THE HEAVY RAIN AXIS OCCURS. IT APPEARS THIS WILL BE CLOSE TO THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR, HOWEVER IT WILL DEPEND ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE. AS THE HURRICANE MOVES TO OUR LATITUDE, THE MASSIVE ONSHORE FLOW WILL PROBABLY TEND TO WRAP THE SURFACE FRONT WESTWARD AND THEN SOUTHWARD DUE TO ITS LARGE CIRCULATION. THE INFLUX OF PLENTY OF MOISTURE ALONG WITH THE SURFACE FRONT WILL RESULT IN AN EFFICIENT OVERRUNNING SURFACE. THIS WILL RESULT IN EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT, SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION BELOW. WE WOULD LIKE TO CONTINUE TO STRESS THAT IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT CENTER OF THE HURRICANE, ESPECIALLY SINCE THIS PARTICULAR STORM IS A VERY LARGE SYSTEM. WE EXPECT WIDESPREAD IMPACTS FROM THIS HURRICANE ACROSS THE CWA. WE GENERALLY LEANED CLOSER TO THE GFS REGARDING POPS AS IT APPEARS TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THE RAIN SHIELD HEADED TOWARD OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES EARLY THIS MORNING. THE INCREASING FLOW ALONG WITH DEEPENING MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CONVECTION TO BE ESPECIALLY EMBEDDED. WHILE THE TORNADO POTENTIAL IS LOW, IT IS NOT ZERO AS SOME MINI-SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WILL BE POSSIBLE NORTH OF THE CENTER AS THEY SLIDE ONSHORE. A TORNADO WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED JUST TO OUR SOUTH.

-- End Changed Discussion --

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... MOST OF THIS TIME FRAME WILL BE DOMINATED BY HURRICANE IRENE AS IT MOVES VERY NEAR OUR COAST SUNDAY MORNING. THE WORST CONDITIONS WILL BE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF AREAS OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY/POSSIBLY RECORD SETTING RAINFALL THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. OUR WIND FORECAST IS BASED OFF OF THE GRIDDED WIND FIELD FROM THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST AND THIS WILL BE UPDATED WITH SUBSEQUENT ADVISORY ISSUANCES. WE GENERALLY BASED OUR POPS MORE TOWARD A BLEND WHICH ENDS UP SIMILAR TO THE GFS. INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH, THE WATER VAPOR EARLY THIS MORNING SHOWS A MID LEVEL TROUGH CRUISING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE FLOW STRENGTHENING AHEAD OF THIS CAN BE SEEN BY THE OUTFLOW FROM HURRICANE IRENE EXPANDING IN SIZE AND NORTHWARD. THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPEARS TO BE MOVING RATHER QUICKLY EASTWARD, WHICH MAY END UP NUDGING IRENE A BIT FARTHER TO THE EAST. A LOT OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE STRONGEST BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS STAY NEAR THE COAST AND THEN OVER THE OCEAN, WITH FRICTIONAL EFFECTS REDUCING THE SURFACE WINDS INLAND. BASED ON THIS, THE WESTERN PART OF THE HURRICANE WARNING INCLUDING PHILADELPHIA MAY NOT QUITE MAKE IT WITH WINDS MOSTLY IN THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE RANGE. GIVEN THE LARGE WIND FIELD, WE WILL NOT CHANGE THESE ATTM. OVERALL, THERE CONTINUES TO BE A HIGH RISK OF IMPACTS WITH THIS HURRICANE, WHICH INCLUDES DAMAGING WINDS, TORRENTIAL RAIN, COASTAL FLOODING, DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS, AND BATTERING WAVES AND BEACH EROSION. MUCH OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG 250 MB JET NORTH OF THE HURRICANE INTO SUNDAY, GENERALLY FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS UPPER-LEVEL JET EVEN HAS SOME ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE TO IT AND GIVEN THE ORIENTATION OF THIS JET IT IS SUCH THAT IRENE IS WITHIN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION AS SHE TRACKS NORTHWARD. THIS SCENARIO MAY TEND TO HELP WITH A POLEWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW CHANNEL AND ASSIST IN THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM AS A WHOLE. THEREFORE, DESPITE SOME INCREASING SHEAR AS THE HURRICANE GAINES LATITUDE ALONG WITH COOLER WATERS AND LAND INTERACTIONS, PERHAPS THIS IS WHY MUCH OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE NEARLY INSISTS THIS SYSTEM MAINTAINS A RATHER LOW CENTRAL PRESSURE ALL THE WAY INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. IT BECOMES EVEN MORE OF AN INTENSITY FORECAST CHALLENGE AS TROPICAL CYCLONES GET THIS FAR NORTH AND INTERACT WITH BAROCLINIC ZONES AND LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC FEATURES. THE PRESENCE OF THE SURFACE FRONT AND UPPER-LEVEL JET IS CONCERNING AS THIS MAY PLAY A SIGNIFICANT ROLE IN ENHANCING THE RAINFALL RATES. THE AMOUNT OF RAIN THAT LOOKS TO OCCUR WITH THIS SYSTEM MAY END UP BEING THE MAIN TOPIC OF DISCUSSION FOR MANY YEARS. AN EXAMINATION OF THE WIND FIELD AT 925 MB IS STILL CONCERNING WITH A LARGE AREA OF 60 TO NEARLY 85 KNOTS TRACKING ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. WHILE THE FRICTIONAL EFFECTS WILL TEND TO SLOW THE WIND DOWN SOME AND ALSO ALLOW FOR SOME DECOUPLING BETWEEN THE SURFACE AND ABOVE, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT COMBINED WITH ENHANCED MIXING WITHIN HEAVIER RAIN/CONVECTION SHOULD PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT/DAMAGING GUSTS. ONE THING NOTED IS THE MODEL FORECASTS INDICATING A RATHER IMPRESSIVE 3-HOUR PRESSURE RISE BEHIND THE HURRICANE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SOME FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR AN INCREASED THREAT OF DAMAGING GUSTS TO OCCUR AS THIS FEATURE MOVES THROUGH AND VERTICAL MIXING SHARPLY INCREASES DUE TO SOME CLEARING. IF THIS WERE TO PAN OUT, THE WINDS COULD BE STRONGEST WHEN THIS SHARP PRESSURE FALL/RISE COUPLET MOVES THROUGH. WE CONTINUE TO USE A 125 PERCENT OF THE SUSTAINED WINDS TO DERIVE OUR GUSTS BUT NOW CAPPED THEM AT 75 KNOTS /20 PERCENT REDUCTION OF THE SUSTAINED WINDS OVER LAND/. THE WIND GUST TOOL THAT INCLUDES MIXING MAY BE TO HIGH ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS FARTHER INLAND. IT APPEARS THAT THE HURRICANE WILL SPEED UP SOME, AND THIS FORWARD MOTION COULD BE A BIT MORE IF THE INCOMING SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS ENOUGH TO PICK IT UP QUICKER. WE THEREFORE CONTINUED THE TREND IN QUICKLY TAPERING POPS DOWN SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. ONCE THE STORM MOVES OFF TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST LATER SUNDAY, THE CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY IMPROVE. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... OVERALL A MUCH CALMER TIME PERIOD MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE WIND WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN. A WEAK TROUGH WILL SKIRT OUR REGION TUESDAY, WHICH MAY INCREASE CLOUDS A BIT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS ACROSS ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE SLIPPING TO THE EAST THURSDAY. && .AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

-- Changed Discussion --

THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WILL ADVANCE FROM THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE COURSE OF THE DAY TODAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO A WIND DRIVEN RAIN THIS EVENING WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. THEREFORE, WE INDICATED CONDITIONS EVERYWHERE AT SUB-VFR WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN. WHILE SOME THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE EMBEDDED IN THE RAIN SHIELD, WE OPTED TO NOT INCLUDE IT AT THIS TIME GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND COVERAGE. ANY HEAVIER RAIN AND THUNDER WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONGER SURFACE GUSTS. OTHERWISE, WE GRADUALLY INCREASED THE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. WE WENT CONSERVATIVE WITH THE GUSTS AS IT IS NOT COMPLETELY CLEAR HOW MUCH TRANSFER OF THE WINDS TO THE SURFACE FROM ALOFT OCCURS. WE CARRIED THE STRONGEST WINDS AT KMIV AND KACY AT THIS POINT. THERE COULD BE A SECONDARY SURGE OF RATHER STRONG WINDS FOR A FEW HOURS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE CENTER OF THE STORM MOVES THROUGH AND A SHARP PRESSURE RISE OCCURS. THE WINDS WILL BE SOUTHEAST TO EAST THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT. OUTLOOK... HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKELY INFLUENCE OUR REGION FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH DRY WEATHER AND MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, SOME LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY.

-- End Changed Discussion --

.MARINE...

-- Changed Discussion --

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL ZONES. THE ARRIVAL OF THE HURRICANE WILL GENERATE INCREASING WINDS FROM THE EAST AND NORTHEAST. THE TRACK APPEARS TO TAKE THE CENTER OF THE STORM OVER OR VERY NEAR OUR COASTAL WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS IS A LARGE SYSTEM THEREFORE THE WIND FIELD IS RATHER EXTENSIVE. THE SIZE OF THIS SYSTEM IS ALSO AIDING IN A LARGE FIELD OF HIGH SEAS. THESE SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD TODAY AND PEAK LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING AS THE CENTER MOVES ON BY. THERE COULD BE A SECONDARY SURGE OF WINDS FOR A FEW HOURS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS IMPRESSIVE 3-HOUR PRESSURE RISES MOVE THROUGH. WE GENERALLY FOLLOWED WAVEWATCH FAIRLY CLOSELY BUT LEANED CLOSER TO CONTINUITY REGARDING THE SUBSIDING OF THE SEAS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AS OF NOW, WE HAVE SEAS PEAKING BETWEEN 20-25 FEET. THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES WELL TO OUR NORTH AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT EASES SIGNIFICANTLY. THE OFFSHORE WINDS IN THE WAKE OF IRENE SHOULD ALLOW THE SEAS TO SUBSIDE FAIRLY QUICKLY OVERALL. OUTLOOK... HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKELY INFLUENCE THE COASTAL WATERS OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO STAY GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 KNOTS. WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS SHOULD REMAIN HIGH ON MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF HURRICANE IRENE. WAVE HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE SLOWLY ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

-- End Changed Discussion --

HYDROLOGY... HEAVY AND POSSIBLY RECORD SETTING RAINFALL TODAY AND SUNDAY MAY RESULT IN MAJOR FLOODING ACROSS THE AREA. THE PW VALUES FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION ARE RATHER IMPRESSIVE WITH 2.0-2.5 INCHES OVERSPREADING THE REGION TODAY INTO SUNDAY. IF THE CENTER GETS CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE COAST, SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES THE PW VALUES INCREASE TO JUST OVER 3.0 INCHES. THIS AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE WILL LEAD TO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL RATES AND TOTALS. THIS COMBINED WITH ANY UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT AND/OR LOCALLY ENHANCED CONVERGENCE/BANDING WILL ADD TO THE RAIN RATES. THE INITIAL INFLUX OF THIS HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT AIR ALONG WITH THE PRESENCE OF A STATIONARY FRONT WILL LEAD TO BOUTS OF LOCALLY VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WELL BEFORE THE HURRICANE GETS TO OUR LATITUDE. SMALLER CREEKS AND STREAMS WILL BE HIGHLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO RAPID FLOODING. THE RARITAN AND SCHUYLKILL RIVERS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO REACT RATHER QUICKLY AND ALSO ARE HIGHLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLOODING. THE DELAWARE, SUSQUEHANNA, RANCOCAS AND PASSAIC RIVERS REACT MORE SLOWLY, BUT THEY ALSO ARE HIGHLY SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLOODING. IN ADDITION, THE WINDSWEPT RAIN WILL LIKELY PRODUCE URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. THE STRONG ONSHORE FLOW COMBINED WITH THE TIDES WILL TEND TO BACK WATER UP, COMPLICATING FLOODING PROBLEMS. GIVEN THE QPF FORECAST /6 TO 10 INCHES WITH LOCALLY UP TO 12 INCHES/ AND THE ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS, THE FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT AND WE CONTINUE TO CARRY A HEAVY RAIN MENTION IN THE FORECAST. .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... THE THREAT OF MODERATE TO SEVERE COASTAL FLOODING REMAINS HIGH OVER THE WEEKEND AS HURRICANE IRENE IMPACTS OUR REGION. THE SUNDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE ALONG THE OCEANFRONT AND DELAWARE BAY IS OF MOST CONCERN. HOWEVER, WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE STORM, COASTAL FLOODING MAY VERY WELL BE AN ISSUE FOR HOURS BEFORE AND AFTER THE HIGH TIDE OCCURS. WITH WATER EXPECTED TO BE PUSHED UP DELAWARE BAY, FLOODING IS ALSO A CONCERN FOR THE TIDAL PORTION OF THE DELAWARE RIVER. COASTAL FLOODING ISSUES MAY LINGER INTO THE SUNDAY EVENING HIGH TIDE, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NORTHERN PART OF THE NEW JERSEY COAST AND ALONG RARITAN BAY. .RIP CURRENTS... DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE IRENE ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEKEND.

George Wright is a Certified Consulting Meteorologist for Wright Weather Consulting, LLC. George is also a meteorologist with ABC News and Cablevision News 12. Our website is WrightWeather.com.

Latest Advisory on Irene from the NHC

BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
1100 AM EDT SAT AUG 27 2011
...IRENE BATTERING EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS SPREADING NORTHWARD ALONG THE DELMARVA COAST...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.2N 76.4W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM W OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM S OF NORFOLK VIRGINIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.11 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING SOUTH OF LITTLE RIVER INLET HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN REPLACED WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND FROM MERRIMACK RIVER NORTHWARD TO EASTPORT MAINE.SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...* LITTLE RIVER INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO SAGAMORE BEACH MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO...ALBEMARLE...AND CURRITUCK SOUNDS...DELAWARE BAY...CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF DRUM POINT...NEW YORK CITY...LONG ISLAND...LONG ISLAND SOUND...COASTAL CONNECTICUT AND RHODE ISLAND...BLOCK ISLAND...MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT NORTHWARD AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC
* NORTH OF SAGAMORE BEACH TO EASTPORT MAINE
INTERESTS IN EASTERN CANADA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IRENE.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.4 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF IRENE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THIS AFTERNOON. THE HURRICANE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT AND
MOVE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SLIGHT WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS IRENE CROSSES
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...BUT IRENE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT MOVES NEAR OR OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND APPROACHES NEW ENGLAND.
IRENE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 260 MILES...415 KM. A WIND GUST TO 87 MPH WAS RECENTLY MEASURED AT CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. NORFOLK NAVAL AIR STATION RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND
GUST TO 63 MPH. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 952 MB...28.11 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TODAY WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THIS AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS EVENING WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS AFFECTING THE UPPER FLOORS OF HIGH-RISE BUILDINGS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN THOSE NEAR
GROUND-LEVEL. STORM SURGE...AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM TIDE WILL RAISE WATER
LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 5 TO 9 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING THE ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS. STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 4 TO 8 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER NORTHWARD TO CAPE COD INCLUDING SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND ITS TRIBUTARIES. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE...DESTRUCTIVE...AND LIFE-THREATENING WAVES. STORM SURGE VALUES ARE VERY LOCATION-SPECIFIC...AND USERS ARE URGED TO CONSULT PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THEIR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES.
RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...FROM EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES INTO EASTERN NEW YORK AND INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND. THESE RAINS...COMBINED WITH HEAVY RAINS OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS...COULD CAUSE WIDESPREAD FLOODING...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS...AND SIGNIFICANT UPROOTING OF TREES DUE TO RAIN-SOFTENED GROUNDS. SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IRENE ARE AFFECTING MUCH OF THE COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THESE SWELLS WILL CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA...EASTERN MARYLAND...DELAWARE...AND SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY THROUGH THIS EVENING.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

George Wright is a Certified Consulting Meteorologist for Wright Weather Consulting, LLC. George is also a meteorologist with ABC News and Cablevision News 12. Our website is WrightWeather.com.

Local Forecast for Manhattan and the Bronx...Hurricane Irene

ZONE FORECAST PRODUCT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1024 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2011
NYZ072-271000-
NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-
1024 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2011
...HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT...
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT...
.TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY THIS EVENING...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN
THE LOWER 70S. SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN
20 PERCENT.
.SATURDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HUMID WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
80S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH...INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 MPH WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF RAIN 90 PERCENT.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH HURRICANE
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. RAIN. RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES. HUMID WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S. EAST WINDS 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
50 MPH...INCREASING TO 40 TO 50 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 65 MPH AFTER
MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF RAIN NEAR 100 PERCENT.
.SUNDAY...HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED. RAIN. RAIN MAY BE HEAVY
AT TIMES. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. NORTHEAST WINDS 55 TO 75
MPH...BECOMING NORTHWEST 55 TO 65 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS UP
TO 80 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN NEAR 100 PERCENT.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
EVENING...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY AFTER MIDNIGHT. VERY WINDY AND LESS
HUMID WITH LOWS AROUND 60. NORTHWEST WINDS 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS
UP TO 45 MPH...DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH
AFTER MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF RAIN 20 PERCENT.
.MONDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S.
.MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S.
.TUESDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 80.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 60S.
.WEDNESDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR IN THE EVENING...THEN BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 60S.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 80.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 60S.
.FRIDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S.
NYZ073-271000-
BRONX-
1024 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2011
...HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT...
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT...
.TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY THIS EVENING...THEN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN
THE LOWER 70S. SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN
20 PERCENT.
.SATURDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
HUMID WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH...
INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF RAIN 90 PERCENT.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH HURRICANE
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. RAIN. RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES. HUMID WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S. EAST WINDS 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
50 MPH...INCREASING TO 40 TO 50 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 65 MPH AFTER
MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF RAIN NEAR 100 PERCENT.
.SUNDAY...HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED. RAIN. RAIN MAY BE HEAVY
AT TIMES. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. NORTHEAST WINDS 55 TO 75
MPH...BECOMING NORTHWEST 50 TO 70 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS UP
TO 80 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN NEAR 100 PERCENT.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE
EVENING...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY AFTER MIDNIGHT. WINDY AND LESS HUMID
WITH LOWS AROUND 60. NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
45 MPH...DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH AFTER
MIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF RAIN 20 PERCENT.
.MONDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S.
.MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S.
.TUESDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 60S.
.WEDNESDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR IN THE EVENING...THEN BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 60S.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 80.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 60S.
.FRIDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S.

George Wright is a Certified Consulting Meteorologist for Wright Weather Consulting, LLC. George is also a meteorologist with ABC News and Cablevision News 12. Our website is WrightWeather.com.

Latest Graphics for Hurricane Irene

The entire NYC metro area is on a full state of emergency and Hurricane Warning. The major imapacts will be flooding rains on already moist soils, beach erosion, coastal flooding due to storm surges of up to 5o to 10 feet and power outages due to high winds. The storm is now forecast to be slightly weaker and faster moving which is good news, however, the storm track is now further west closer to New York City and the Jersey Shore. More on this dangerous storm later.

George Wright is a Certified Consulting Meteorologist for Wright Weather Consulting, LLC. George is also a meteorologist with ABC News and Cablevision News 12. Our website is WrightWeather.com.

Latest Advisory on Hurricane Irene from the NHC

BULLETIN

HURRICANE IRENE ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011
500 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2011

...LARGE HURRICANE IRENE HEADING TOWARD THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES...HURRICANE WARNING EXTENDED NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND....
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.7N 77.4W
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM SSW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...951 MB...28.08 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF SANDY HOOK TO
SAGAMORE BEACH MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING NEW YORK CITY...LONG
ISLAND...LONG ISLAND SOUND...COASTAL CONNECTICUT AND RHODE ISLAND...
BLOCK ISLAND...MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF SAGAMORE
BEACH TO THE MOUTH OF THE MERRIMACK RIVER.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE MOUTH OF THE
MERRIMACK RIVER TO EASTPORT MAINE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LITTLE RIVER INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO SAGAMORE BEACH
MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO...ALBEMARLE...AND CURRITUCK
SOUNDS...DELAWARE BAY...CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF DRUM POINT...NEW
YORK CITY...LONG ISLAND...LONG ISLAND SOUND...COASTAL CONNECTICUT
AND RHODE ISLAND...BLOCK ISLAND...MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA TO LITTLE RIVER INLET
* CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT NORTHWARD AND THE TIDAL POTOMAC
* NORTH OF SAGAMORE BEACH TO MERRIMACK RIVER
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MERRIMACK RIVER TO EASTPORT MAINE
INTERESTS IN SOUTHEASTERN CANADA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
IRENE.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 31.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.4 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL APPROACH THE COAST
OF NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT AND PASS NEAR OR OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST ON SATURDAY. THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEAR OR OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOVE OVER SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND ON SUNDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST BEFORE
IRENE REACHES THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA. SOME WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED AFTER THAT...BUT IRENE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A HURRICANE
AS IT MOVES ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY.
IRENE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290 MILES...465 KM. NOAA
BUOY 41013 LOCATED ABOUT 40 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SOUTHPORT NORTH
CAROLINA RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 46 MPH...75 KM/H...
AND A GUST TO 60 MPH...96 KM/H.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 951 MB...28.08 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
---------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL SPREAD OVER THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HURRICANE
FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN
ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST OVERNIGHT WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY.
STORM SURGE...AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER
LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 6 TO 11 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL IN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA IN NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING THE ALBEMARLE
AND PAMLICO SOUNDS. STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH
AS 4 TO 8 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA
FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER NORTHWARD TO CAPE COD
INCLUDING SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND ITS
TRIBUTARIES. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE...DESTRUCTIVE...AND LIFE-THREATENING WAVES. STORM SURGE
VALUES ARE VERY LOCATION-SPECIFIC...AND USERS ARE URGED TO CONSULT
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THEIR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES.
RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...FROM
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THESE RAINS COULD
CAUSE WIDESPREAD FLOODING AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS.
SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY IRENE ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE
COAST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THESE SWELLS WILL CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.
TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER EXTREME EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

George Wright is a Certified Consulting Meteorologist for Wright Weather Consulting, LLC. George is also a meteorologist with ABC News and Cablevision News 12. Our website is WrightWeather.com.