EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
112 AM EDT SAT MAR 22 2014
VALID 12Z TUE MAR 25 2014 - 12Z SAT MAR 29 2014
...NOR'EASTER TO BOMB OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATE TUESDAY...
THE CROSS-POLAR FLOW WHICH HAS PERIODICALLY REACHED INTO NORTH AMERICA SINCE JANUARY SEEMS DESTINED FOR AT LEAST ONE MORE TRANSPORT OF ARCTIC AIR INTO MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN UNITED STATES TUESDAY. WITH HEIGHTS STILL LOW ACROSS THE EAST IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD BLAST DURING SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN THE SHORT RANGE, THE STAGE WILL BE SET FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW AND ICE WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM HERALDING TUESDAY'S OUTBREAK. IT SEEMS THAT THE CLIPPER WILL GAIN ENOUGH AMPLITUDE TO SIPHON SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AND ENERGY CROSSING THE SOUTHEAST FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO EARLY TUESDAY. MOST OF THE GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SLIGHT NEGATIVE-TILT TO THE CLIPPER WILL SET UP A DUMBBELLING WITH THE GULF ENERGY TOWARD EVENING TUESDAY SOMEWHERE OFFSHORE BETWEEN CAPE HATTERAS AND THE ATLANTIC "BENCHMARK" OF 40N/70W. THIS BINARY INTERACTION--OR FUJIWHARA EFFECT--IS A PARTICULARLY ENERGIZING PHENOMENON. BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, A SUB-970MB SURFACE CYCLONE IS LIKELY NEAR THE BENCHMARK AFTER THE BOMBING PHASE. HOW FAR SOUTHWEST THE BOMBING OCCURS IS CRITICAL FOR THE SENSIBLE WEATHER FROM THE CAROLINAS TO NEW ENGLAND. THE EARLIER/FARTHER SOUTHWEST, THE GREATER THE CHANCES FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER FROM THE CAROLINAS AND SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC ALL THE WAY THROUGH MAINE. IF THE BOMBING IS LATER/FARTHER NORTHEAST, EASTERN NEW ENGLAND WOULD SUFFER THE WORST EFFECTS. EITHER WAY, WINDS LOOK REMARKABLY STRONG ON THE WEST AND SOUTH SIDE OF THE TIGHT CIRCULATION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY--A MAJOR CONCERN FOR COASTAL AND OFFSHORE INTERESTS FROM EASTERN LONG ISLAND TO DOWN EAST MAINE.
