The models are still diverging greatly and no clear cut forecast is available at this time. The 7 AM runs this morning, the runs from 7 PM last night and also 1 AM this morning indicate a wide variation in storm track. The latest GFS moves the storm out to see with barely any cloudiness in New York City. The European and the UKMET models bring the storm closer to the coast. I also notice in recent runs that a 1024 mb high is now forecast across the Great Lakes with cold thickness packing across the upper Midwest and Ohio Valley that could keep the surface colder thereby keeping this event mostly snow, sleet or freezing rain except perhaps along the immediate coast and the eastern half of Long Island. Last night's run were bringing the storm much closer to the coast with thickness values rising to 546 dm which would indicate strong thermal advection and low-level warming that would change the snow to rain except perhaps well inland. Now even this possibility is not clear. More on this storm in the next couple of days.
George Wright is a Certified Consulting Meteorologist for Wright Weather Consulting, Inc. Our website is WrightWeather.com. George is also a meteorologist with Cablevision News 12.
