The NAM and GFS models (see maps above) are now coming into agreement on the storm that is forecast for Saturday afternoon through Sunday afternoon for the NYC Tri-State area. The NAM is producing more snow especially across central and southern NJ and Long Island. The GFS is forecasting lighter snow (but still significant amounts) and is also predicting the heaviest snow will fall south and east of NYC. But the indications are that there will be 6 to 12 inches with wind gusts to 50 mph along the coast and in most of the NYC area there will be a plowable amount of snow. The lighter amounts will fall to the north and west of the city. One of the more important features in the model forecasts is the fact that even though the circulation cuts off at 500 mb, the circulation progesses so that the storm does not slow down thereby dumping a huge amount of snow. This storm is not a really fast mover but it will move fast enough to spare the region of a major 24 or 36 hour snowstorm such as the blizzards of 1996 or 2003.
The National Weather Service continues the Blizzard Watch for Long Island for 6 to 12 inches of snow and wind gusts to 50 mph Saturday night and Sunday. A Winter Storm Watch is in effect elsewhere for snowfall of 5 to 10 inches with gusts to 35 mph. A Winter Storm Warning is in effect for central and southern New Jersey. The worst of the storm is expected Saturday night and Sunday through early afternoon.
George Wright is a Certified Consulting Meteorologist and President of Wright Weather Consulting, Inc. George is also a meteorologist with Cablevision's News 12. Our web site is WrightWeather.com.
