The models are coming into agreement and this in combination with the overall synoptic weather pattern will result in a wet snow and rain event across the NYC metropolitan area tomorrow. The NAM, GFS, AVN and other forecasting models are providing a solution that could produce a significant snowfall in the region, however the lack of a large, cold area of high pressure to the north or northwest is lacking and this has kept surface temperatures in the 40s today (Friday). The temperature was in the 60s yesterday before the cold frontal passage. Even though models are predicting that it will be cold enough in the higher levels of the atmosphere, the temperature at the surface will not be cold enough to support snow. The flakes will melt or partially melt along the coast during Saturday afternoon and during the early evening on Saturday. But to the north and west of NYC, it will be colder and there could be up to an inch of slushy wet snow. Late Saturday evening as the temperature cools, wet snow will likely fall even along the coast, NYC and parts of Long Island. The model runs (above) for the 30-hour forecast at the surface, 850 mb and 500 mb indicate a fast moving storm (lack of a cutoff or closed low), about one half inch of precipitable water (which could result in 4 to 6 inches of snow if it was cold enough at the surface as discussed above). The 0C or 32 F line at 850 mb (about 3000 ft. in the air) is forecast to be very close to NYC at this time. Normally this results in a mix of snow, sleet and rain. As discussed earlier this week, the lack of a "split flow" at 500 mb where the northern (cold) branch of the jet stream combines with the southern (moist) jet is lacking in this pattern. Therefore, only rain and a little wet snow is forecast for NYC and the coast and up to 2 to 4 inches can be expected across the interior suburbs. Another storm is forecast on Wednesday that will bring rain and wind to the NYC region.
George Wright is a Certified Consulting Meteorologist and President of Wright Weather Consulting, Inc. Our web site is WrightWeather.com.
George Wright is a Certified Consulting Meteorologist and President of Wright Weather Consulting, Inc. Our web site is WrightWeather.com.
