The amazingly persistent pattern continues across Canada and the US this week with two potential coastal storms affecting the Mid-Atlantic to coastal New England. In addition, very cold Arctic air will plunge down from the north in the wake of the first potential coastal storm. It has been mild with above normal temperatures in the West and cold with below normal temperatures in the East for the past few weeks. Alaska continues to see above normal temperatures as well. The latest GFS and EURO model runs continue this trend with ridging prevalent from Alaska to the West Coast and troughing in the East in response to low pressure over eastern Canada. Boston received 23 inches of snow over the past few days making it the seventh largest snowstorm in their history. Boston has received 72 inches of snow over the last 30 days setting a record. Boston now has 77 inches of snow so far this season. Temperatures are forecast to be below zero later this week in the Northeast in many locations. Low will be in the single digits in New York City on Friday and Saturday night. A low of 3 is forecast by Saturday morning. Currently 1 to 2 inches of snow is forecast for New York City on Thursday with the potential for more snow this weekend in New York and also for Boston.
NOAA WPC model diagnostic discussion:
MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONNWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
140 PM EST TUE FEB 10 2015
VALID FEB 10/1200 UTC THRU FEB 14/0000 UTC
12Z MODEL EVALUATION WITH FINAL PREFERENCES
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
GFS/NAM INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT SEEM TO DEGRADE THEIR SHORT
RANGE FORECASTS.
TROUGH AMPLIFYING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE EAST THU-FRI
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS/ECMWF/UKMET COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
THE 12Z NAM...09Z SREF MEAN AND 12Z CMC HAVE SOMEWHAT LESS OF A
NEGATIVE TILT TO A MID-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS OVER NEW ENGLAND FRI
MORNING COMPARED TO THE REMAINING DETERMINISTIC CONSENSUS. THIS
RESULTS IN THE NAM/SREF/CMC SURFACE LOW BEING DISPLACED A BIT MORE
OUT TO SEA THAN TRENDS AND THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE
CLUSTERING WOULD SUGGEST. THERE IS REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR A
DAY 2/3 FORECAST IN THE ENSEMBLES WHICH RAISES CONFIDENCE A BIT
ABOVE AVERAGE...BUT MINOR WOBBLES IN POSITION/STRENGTH CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH SUBSEQUENT MODEL CYCLES. THE PREFERENCE WILL BE WITH
THE AGREEABLE GFS/ECMWF/UKMET GIVEN THEIR BETTER AGREEMENT TO THE
ENSEMBLE LOWS COMPARED TO THE NAM/CMC/SREF.
This discussion is from the NOAA WPC:
FINALLY ON THURS... PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST AND NEW ENGLAND WILL BE IN THE CROSS-HAIRS ONCE AGAIN. A POTENT JET STREAK IN THE BASE OF THE ANOMALOUS HEIGHT FALLS/UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL REACH THE DELMARVA COAST TO ALLOW A TRIPLE POINT LOW TO FORM BEFORE DEEPENING RAPIDLY. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS LOW ADVANCING AWAY FROM THE COAST AND REMAINING SOUTH OF THE SRN NEW ENGLAND COAST BEFORE TAKING A B-LINE FOR NOVA SCOTIA. THIS SCENARIO COULD STILL RESULT AN INFLUX OF INCREASING ATLANTIC MOISTURE TO FLOURISH ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE INTENSIFYING LOW... IN A REGION OF STRONG DYNAMIC COOLING. WPC WENT AHEAD AND INTRODUCED A LOW AND MDT PROBS OF 4 INCHES OR GREATER FOR A LARGE PORTION OF NEW ENGLAND... WHICH INCLUDES THE EXHAUSTED BOS METRO AREA. THIS SYSTEM BEARS WATCHING... AS ANY SLIGHT DEVIATION COULD IMPACT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS UP OR DOWN.
George Wright is a Certified Consulting Meteorologist for Wright Weather Consulting, LLC. Visit our website at WrightWeather.com. Follow George Wright on Twitter @gwweather.
