Monday, October 29, 2012
3 PM Update on Sandy from the National Hurricane Center
HURRICANE SANDY TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 300 PM EDT MON OCT 29 2012
CENTER OF SANDY HEADING TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY
LANDFALL EXPECTED BY EARLY THIS EVENING...
SUMMARY OF 300 PM EDT...1900 UTC...INFORMATION
LOCATION...38.5N 73.5W ABOUT 85 MI...SE OF ATLANTIC CITY NEW JERSEY ABOUT 160 MI...S OF NEW YORK CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 28 MPH...
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES
LATEST REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT... AS WELL AS NOAA DOPPLER RADAR OBSERVATIONS...INDICATE THAT SANDY CONTINUES MOVING QUICKLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF SANDY IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST OF EXTREME SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY OR CENTRAL DELAWARE WITHIN THE NEXT 3 TO 5 HOURS.
George Wright is a Certified Consulting Meteorologist for Wright Weather Consulting, LLC. George is also a meteorologist with ABC News and Cablevision News 12. Our website is WrightWeather.com. Follow George on Twitter.
LATEST ADVISORY ON HURRICANE SANDY...
Here is the latest 2 PM Advisory from the NHC:
BULLETIN
HURRICANE SANDY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 29A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON OCT 29 2012
...SANDY MOVING MORE QUICKLY TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...
...LANDFALL EXPECTED EARLY THIS EVENING...
SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.3N 73.1W
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM SE OF ATLANTIC CITY NEW JERSEY
ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM SSE OF NEW YORK CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 28 MPH...44 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF SURF CITY TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS
IN ADDITION...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST BETWEEN CHINCOTEAGUE VIRGINIA AND CHATHAM MASSACHUSETTS. THIS INCLUDES THE TIDAL POTOMAC FROM COBB ISLAND TO SMITH POINT... THE MIDDLE AND UPPER CHESAPEAKE BAY...DELAWARE BAY...AND THE COASTS OF THE NORTHERN DELMARVA PENINSULA...NEW JERSEY...THE NEW YORK CITY AREA...LONG ISLAND...CONNECTICUT...AND RHODE ISLAND.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF CHATHAM TO MERRIMACK RIVER MASSACHUSETTS...THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY...AND SOUTH OF CHINCOTEAGUE TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA...THE NORTHERN ENDPOINT OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING.
OTHER COASTAL AND INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS. PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SANDY WAS LOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT AND NOAA DOPPLER WEATHER RADARS TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 38.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.1 WEST. SANDY IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 28 MPH... 44 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING UNTIL LANDFALL OCCURS...FOLLOWED BY A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST TONIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF SANDY IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY COAST BY EARLY EVENING.
REPORTS FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SANDY IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION INTO A FRONTAL OR WINTERTIME LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THIS TRANSITION WILL NOT BE ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM...AND LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED PRIOR TO LANDFALL. SANDY IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AFTER MOVING WELL INLAND.
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM... MAINLY SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 485 MILES...780 KM. SUSTAINED WINDS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE OCCURRING FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH LONG ISLAND AND LONG ISLAND SOUND...AND SOUTHWARD ALONG THE COASTS OF NEW JERSEY...DELAWARE...AND EASTERN VIRGINIA...AND INCLUDING ALL OF THE CHESAPEAKE AND DELAWARE BAYS. A WEATHERFLOW INSTRUMENT RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 54 MPH...87 KM/H...WITH A GUST TO 63 MPH...102 KM/H...ON LONG ISLAND AT EATONS NECK NEW YORK. ALSO...A UNIVERSITY OF CONNECTICUT BUOY LOCATED IN WESTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 38 MPH...61 KM/H...WITH A GUST TO 54 MPH...87 KM/H...AT A HEIGHT OF 10 FEET
ABOVE THE WATER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON REPORTS FROM RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS 940 MB...27.76 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...GALE/TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES FROM NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER OTHER PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS COULD REACH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES... INCLUDING NEW YORK CITY AND LONG ISLAND...BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT WINDS AFFECTING THE UPPER FLOORS OF HIGH-RISE BUILDINGS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN THOSE NEAR GROUND LEVEL.
STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...
NC NORTH OF SURF CITY INCLUDING PAMLICO/ALBEMARLE SOUNDS...4 TO 6 FT
SE VA AND DELMARVA INCLUDING LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY...2 TO 4 FT
UPPER AND MIDDLE CHESAPEAKE BAY...1 TO 3 FT
LONG ISLAND SOUND...RARITAN BAY...AND NEW YORK HARBOR...6 TO 11 FT
ELSEWHERE FROM OCEAN CITY MD TO THE CT/RI BORDER...4 TO 8 FT
CT/RI BORDER TO THE SOUTH SHORE OF CAPE COD INCLUDING BUZZARDS
BAY AND NARRAGANSETT BAY...3 TO 6 FT
CAPE COD TO THE MA/NH BORDER INCLUDING CAPE COD BAY...2 TO 4 FT
MA/NH BORDER TO THE U.S./CANADA BORDER...1 TO 3 FT
SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. GIVEN THE LARGE WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH SANDY...ELEVATED WATER LEVELS COULD SPAN MULTIPLE TIDE CYCLES RESULTING IN REPEATED AND EXTENDED PERIODS OF COASTAL AND BAYSIDE FLOODING. IN ADDITION... ELEVATED WATERS COULD OCCUR FAR REMOVED FROM THE CENTER OF SANDY.
FURTHERMORE...THESE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR REGARDLESS OF WHETHER SANDY IS A TROPICAL OR POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.
RAINFALL...RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER FAR NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 8 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...INCLUDING THE DELMARVA PENINSULA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK STATE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND.
SNOWFALL..SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 FEET ARE EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS OF WEST VIRGINIA WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SNOWFALL OF 1 TO 2 FEET IS EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA TO THE KENTUCKY BORDER...WITH 12 TO 18 INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA/TENNESSEE BORDER AND IN THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN MARYLAND.
SURF...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FROM FLORIDA THROUGH NEW ENGLAND FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
George Wright is a Certified Consulting Meteorologist for Wright Weather Consulting, LLC. George is also a meteorologist with ABC News and Cablevision News 12. Our website is WrightWeather.com.
BULLETIN
HURRICANE SANDY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 29A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON OCT 29 2012
...SANDY MOVING MORE QUICKLY TOWARD SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...
...LANDFALL EXPECTED EARLY THIS EVENING...
SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.3N 73.1W
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM SE OF ATLANTIC CITY NEW JERSEY
ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM SSE OF NEW YORK CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 28 MPH...44 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF SURF CITY TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS
IN ADDITION...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST BETWEEN CHINCOTEAGUE VIRGINIA AND CHATHAM MASSACHUSETTS. THIS INCLUDES THE TIDAL POTOMAC FROM COBB ISLAND TO SMITH POINT... THE MIDDLE AND UPPER CHESAPEAKE BAY...DELAWARE BAY...AND THE COASTS OF THE NORTHERN DELMARVA PENINSULA...NEW JERSEY...THE NEW YORK CITY AREA...LONG ISLAND...CONNECTICUT...AND RHODE ISLAND.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF CHATHAM TO MERRIMACK RIVER MASSACHUSETTS...THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY...AND SOUTH OF CHINCOTEAGUE TO DUCK NORTH CAROLINA...THE NORTHERN ENDPOINT OF THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING.
OTHER COASTAL AND INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS. PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS FROM LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SANDY WAS LOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT AND NOAA DOPPLER WEATHER RADARS TO BE NEAR LATITUDE 38.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.1 WEST. SANDY IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 28 MPH... 44 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING UNTIL LANDFALL OCCURS...FOLLOWED BY A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST TONIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF SANDY IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY COAST BY EARLY EVENING.
REPORTS FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SANDY IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION INTO A FRONTAL OR WINTERTIME LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THIS TRANSITION WILL NOT BE ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM...AND LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED PRIOR TO LANDFALL. SANDY IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AFTER MOVING WELL INLAND.
HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM... MAINLY SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 485 MILES...780 KM. SUSTAINED WINDS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE ARE OCCURRING FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH LONG ISLAND AND LONG ISLAND SOUND...AND SOUTHWARD ALONG THE COASTS OF NEW JERSEY...DELAWARE...AND EASTERN VIRGINIA...AND INCLUDING ALL OF THE CHESAPEAKE AND DELAWARE BAYS. A WEATHERFLOW INSTRUMENT RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 54 MPH...87 KM/H...WITH A GUST TO 63 MPH...102 KM/H...ON LONG ISLAND AT EATONS NECK NEW YORK. ALSO...A UNIVERSITY OF CONNECTICUT BUOY LOCATED IN WESTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 38 MPH...61 KM/H...WITH A GUST TO 54 MPH...87 KM/H...AT A HEIGHT OF 10 FEET
ABOVE THE WATER.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON REPORTS FROM RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS 940 MB...27.76 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...GALE/TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES FROM NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER OTHER PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS COULD REACH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES... INCLUDING NEW YORK CITY AND LONG ISLAND...BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT WINDS AFFECTING THE UPPER FLOORS OF HIGH-RISE BUILDINGS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER THAN THOSE NEAR GROUND LEVEL.
STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...
NC NORTH OF SURF CITY INCLUDING PAMLICO/ALBEMARLE SOUNDS...4 TO 6 FT
SE VA AND DELMARVA INCLUDING LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY...2 TO 4 FT
UPPER AND MIDDLE CHESAPEAKE BAY...1 TO 3 FT
LONG ISLAND SOUND...RARITAN BAY...AND NEW YORK HARBOR...6 TO 11 FT
ELSEWHERE FROM OCEAN CITY MD TO THE CT/RI BORDER...4 TO 8 FT
CT/RI BORDER TO THE SOUTH SHORE OF CAPE COD INCLUDING BUZZARDS
BAY AND NARRAGANSETT BAY...3 TO 6 FT
CAPE COD TO THE MA/NH BORDER INCLUDING CAPE COD BAY...2 TO 4 FT
MA/NH BORDER TO THE U.S./CANADA BORDER...1 TO 3 FT
SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. GIVEN THE LARGE WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH SANDY...ELEVATED WATER LEVELS COULD SPAN MULTIPLE TIDE CYCLES RESULTING IN REPEATED AND EXTENDED PERIODS OF COASTAL AND BAYSIDE FLOODING. IN ADDITION... ELEVATED WATERS COULD OCCUR FAR REMOVED FROM THE CENTER OF SANDY.
FURTHERMORE...THESE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR REGARDLESS OF WHETHER SANDY IS A TROPICAL OR POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.
RAINFALL...RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER FAR NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 8 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...INCLUDING THE DELMARVA PENINSULA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NEW YORK STATE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND.
SNOWFALL..SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 3 FEET ARE EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS OF WEST VIRGINIA WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SNOWFALL OF 1 TO 2 FEET IS EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA TO THE KENTUCKY BORDER...WITH 12 TO 18 INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED IN THE MOUNTAINS NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA/TENNESSEE BORDER AND IN THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN MARYLAND.
SURF...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FROM FLORIDA THROUGH NEW ENGLAND FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
George Wright is a Certified Consulting Meteorologist for Wright Weather Consulting, LLC. George is also a meteorologist with ABC News and Cablevision News 12. Our website is WrightWeather.com.
CATASTROPIC COASTAL FLOODING FROM SANDY TONIGHT...
LATEST COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE:
COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1113 AM EDT MON OCT 29 2012
...LIFE THREATENING COASTAL FLOODING EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING...
CTZ009>012-NJZ006-106-108-NYZ071>075-078>081-176>179-292300-
/O.CON.KOKX.CF.W.0003.000000T0000Z-121030T1900Z/
SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-
SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-HUDSON-EASTERN ESSEX-EASTERN UNION-
SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-
RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-
NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-
NORTHERN QUEENS-NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU-
1113 AM EDT MON OCT 29 2012
...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM EDT
TUESDAY...
* LOCATIONS...ALONG NEW YORK HARBOR...NEWARK BAY...THE ARTHUR
KILL...THE TIDALLY AFFECTED PORTIONS OF THE HACKENSACK AND
PASSAIC RIVERS...LONG ISLAND SOUND...THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
SHORES OF LONG ISLAND...AND TIDALLY AFFECTED PORTIONS OF THE
HUDSON AND CONNECTICUT RIVERS.
* TIDAL DEPARTURES...BETWEEN 3 TO 5 FT ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES
THIS MORNING...AND POTENTIAL FOR 6 TO 11 FT ABOVE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. THE HIGHER END OF THE RANGE RELEGATED TO THE
HISTORICALLY MOST VULNERABLE AREAS ALONG NEW YORK
HARBOR...WESTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND...THE LONG ISLAND SOUTH SHORE
BACK BAYS...AND PECONIC BAY.
* HIGH SURF...BREAKING WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 15 TO 20
FT ALONG OCEAN FACING SHORELINES THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...6 TO 12 FT WAVES ARE EXPECTED ALONG EXPOSED
EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN FACING PORTIONS OF LONG ISLAND
SOUND...PECONIC AND GARDINERS BAYS...AND NEW YORK HARBOR. THE
DESTRUCTIVE WAVES ON TOP OF THE STORM SURGE WILL CAUSE
OVERWASHES AND SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO COASTAL STRUCTURES
NEAREST TO SEA LEVEL. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR LOW LYING
AREAS ALONG OCEAN PARKWAY AND DUNE ROAD...THE TWIN FORKS OF
LONG ISLAND...FIRE ISLAND COMMUNITIES SUCH AS FAIR HARBOR...
OCEAN BEACH...CHERRY GROVE...FIRE ISLAND PINES AND DAVIS
PARK...AND HISTORICALLY VULNERABLE LOCATIONS ALONG LONG ISLAND
SOUND.
* TIMING...THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST STORM TIDE
OCCURRING WITH TONIGHTS HIGH TIDE CYCLE.
* IMPACTS...A LONG DURATION COASTAL FLOOD EVENT IS EXPECTED WITH
POTENTIAL HISTORIC FLOODING TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
THE STORM SURGE UP COASTAL RIVERS WILL RESULT IN MINOR TO
LOCALLY MODERATE FLOODING. PROBABILITY IS HIGH FOR SIGNIFICANT
INUNDATION AND DAMAGE TO STRUCTURES IN HISTORICALLY FLOOD PRONE
SPOTS.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS EXPECTED OR
OCCURRING. COASTAL RESIDENTS IN THE WARNED AREA SHOULD BE ALERT
FOR RISING WATER...AND TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY.
&&
WATER LEVELS FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHTS HIGH TIDE CYCLE
...NY HARBOR WATER LEVELS FOR THIS EVENING...
COASTAL............TIME OF......FORECAST TOTAL.....FLOOD.....
LOCATION...........HIGH TIDE.....WATER LEVEL.......CATEGORY..
...................................(MLLW)....................
THE BATTERY NYC.....813 PM.........10-12.............MAJOR....
BERGEN POINT NY.....814 PM.........12-13.............MAJOR....
...OCEAN WATER LEVELS FOR TONIGHT...
COASTAL............TIME OF......FORECAST TOTAL.....FLOOD.....
LOCATION...........HIGH TIDE.....WATER LEVEL.......CATEGORY..
...................................(MLLW)....................
MONTAUK POINT NY.....923 PM.........7.5-8.5........MAJOR...
...WESTERN L.I. SOUND WATER LEVELS FOR TONIGHT...
COASTAL............TIME OF......FORECAST TOTAL.....FLOOD.....
LOCATION...........HIGH TIDE.....WATER LEVEL.......CATEGORY..
...................................(MLLW)....................
KINGS POINT NY......1227 AM........15-16...........MAJOR....
LATTINGTOWN NY......1205 AM........15-16...........MAJOR....
STAMFORD CT.........1201 AM........14-15...........MAJOR....
BRIDGEPORT CT.......1158 PM........14-15...........MAJOR....
NEW HAVEN CT........1157 PM........13-14...........MAJOR....
...SOUTH SHORE BAYS WATER LEVELS FOR THIS EVENING...
COASTAL............TIME OF......FORECAST TOTAL.....FLOOD.....
LOCATION...........HIGH TIDE.....WATER LEVEL.......CATEGORY.. ....
..............................(MLLW/NGVD)................
E ROCKAWAY INLET NY..814 PM.........12/10.5.........MAJOR....
FREEPORT GAGE NY.....858 PM.........11/10.2.........MAJOR....
JAMAICA BAY NY.......900 PM.......12.2/10...........MAJOR....
ROCKAWAY INLET NY....820 PM.......11.5/9.5..........MAJOR....
POINT LOOKOUT........801 PM.........11/9.9..........MAJOR....
LINDENHURST.........1041 PM.......8.4/8.6...........MAJOR....
George Wright is a Certified Consulting Meteorologist for Wright Weather Consulting, LLC. George is also a meteorologist with ABC News and Cablevision News 12. Our website is WrightWeather.com.
COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1113 AM EDT MON OCT 29 2012
...LIFE THREATENING COASTAL FLOODING EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING...
CTZ009>012-NJZ006-106-108-NYZ071>075-078>081-176>179-292300-
/O.CON.KOKX.CF.W.0003.000000T0000Z-121030T1900Z/
SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-
SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-HUDSON-EASTERN ESSEX-EASTERN UNION-
SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-
RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-
NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-
NORTHERN QUEENS-NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU-
1113 AM EDT MON OCT 29 2012
...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM EDT
TUESDAY...
* LOCATIONS...ALONG NEW YORK HARBOR...NEWARK BAY...THE ARTHUR
KILL...THE TIDALLY AFFECTED PORTIONS OF THE HACKENSACK AND
PASSAIC RIVERS...LONG ISLAND SOUND...THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
SHORES OF LONG ISLAND...AND TIDALLY AFFECTED PORTIONS OF THE
HUDSON AND CONNECTICUT RIVERS.
* TIDAL DEPARTURES...BETWEEN 3 TO 5 FT ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES
THIS MORNING...AND POTENTIAL FOR 6 TO 11 FT ABOVE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. THE HIGHER END OF THE RANGE RELEGATED TO THE
HISTORICALLY MOST VULNERABLE AREAS ALONG NEW YORK
HARBOR...WESTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND...THE LONG ISLAND SOUTH SHORE
BACK BAYS...AND PECONIC BAY.
* HIGH SURF...BREAKING WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD TO 15 TO 20
FT ALONG OCEAN FACING SHORELINES THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...6 TO 12 FT WAVES ARE EXPECTED ALONG EXPOSED
EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN FACING PORTIONS OF LONG ISLAND
SOUND...PECONIC AND GARDINERS BAYS...AND NEW YORK HARBOR. THE
DESTRUCTIVE WAVES ON TOP OF THE STORM SURGE WILL CAUSE
OVERWASHES AND SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO COASTAL STRUCTURES
NEAREST TO SEA LEVEL. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR LOW LYING
AREAS ALONG OCEAN PARKWAY AND DUNE ROAD...THE TWIN FORKS OF
LONG ISLAND...FIRE ISLAND COMMUNITIES SUCH AS FAIR HARBOR...
OCEAN BEACH...CHERRY GROVE...FIRE ISLAND PINES AND DAVIS
PARK...AND HISTORICALLY VULNERABLE LOCATIONS ALONG LONG ISLAND
SOUND.
* TIMING...THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH THE HIGHEST STORM TIDE
OCCURRING WITH TONIGHTS HIGH TIDE CYCLE.
* IMPACTS...A LONG DURATION COASTAL FLOOD EVENT IS EXPECTED WITH
POTENTIAL HISTORIC FLOODING TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
THE STORM SURGE UP COASTAL RIVERS WILL RESULT IN MINOR TO
LOCALLY MODERATE FLOODING. PROBABILITY IS HIGH FOR SIGNIFICANT
INUNDATION AND DAMAGE TO STRUCTURES IN HISTORICALLY FLOOD PRONE
SPOTS.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS EXPECTED OR
OCCURRING. COASTAL RESIDENTS IN THE WARNED AREA SHOULD BE ALERT
FOR RISING WATER...AND TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY.
&&
WATER LEVELS FOR THIS EVENING AND TONIGHTS HIGH TIDE CYCLE
...NY HARBOR WATER LEVELS FOR THIS EVENING...
COASTAL............TIME OF......FORECAST TOTAL.....FLOOD.....
LOCATION...........HIGH TIDE.....WATER LEVEL.......CATEGORY..
...................................(MLLW)....................
THE BATTERY NYC.....813 PM.........10-12.............MAJOR....
BERGEN POINT NY.....814 PM.........12-13.............MAJOR....
...OCEAN WATER LEVELS FOR TONIGHT...
COASTAL............TIME OF......FORECAST TOTAL.....FLOOD.....
LOCATION...........HIGH TIDE.....WATER LEVEL.......CATEGORY..
...................................(MLLW)....................
MONTAUK POINT NY.....923 PM.........7.5-8.5........MAJOR...
...WESTERN L.I. SOUND WATER LEVELS FOR TONIGHT...
COASTAL............TIME OF......FORECAST TOTAL.....FLOOD.....
LOCATION...........HIGH TIDE.....WATER LEVEL.......CATEGORY..
...................................(MLLW)....................
KINGS POINT NY......1227 AM........15-16...........MAJOR....
LATTINGTOWN NY......1205 AM........15-16...........MAJOR....
STAMFORD CT.........1201 AM........14-15...........MAJOR....
BRIDGEPORT CT.......1158 PM........14-15...........MAJOR....
NEW HAVEN CT........1157 PM........13-14...........MAJOR....
...SOUTH SHORE BAYS WATER LEVELS FOR THIS EVENING...
COASTAL............TIME OF......FORECAST TOTAL.....FLOOD.....
LOCATION...........HIGH TIDE.....WATER LEVEL.......CATEGORY.. ....
..............................(MLLW/NGVD)................
E ROCKAWAY INLET NY..814 PM.........12/10.5.........MAJOR....
FREEPORT GAGE NY.....858 PM.........11/10.2.........MAJOR....
JAMAICA BAY NY.......900 PM.......12.2/10...........MAJOR....
ROCKAWAY INLET NY....820 PM.......11.5/9.5..........MAJOR....
POINT LOOKOUT........801 PM.........11/9.9..........MAJOR....
LINDENHURST.........1041 PM.......8.4/8.6...........MAJOR....
George Wright is a Certified Consulting Meteorologist for Wright Weather Consulting, LLC. George is also a meteorologist with ABC News and Cablevision News 12. Our website is WrightWeather.com.
LATEST FORECAST DISCUSSION FROM THE NY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON:
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 1100 AM EDT MON OCT 29 2012
SYNOPSIS... SANDY...WHOSE CENTER WAS LOCATED ABOUT 340 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF NEW YORK CITY AT 7 AM...CONTINUES TO INCREASE ITS IMPACT ON THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. THE CENTER OF SANDY IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL ON THE NEW JERSEY COAST THIS EVENING...A WORST CASE SCENARIO FOR OUR REGION. CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE TODAY...WITH PROLONGED MAJOR IMPACTS THIS AFTERNOON AND NIGHT... INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS TO HURRICANE FORCE...LIFE THREATENING STORM SURGE...AND POTENTIALLY FLOODING RAINS. THE STORM WILL WEAKEN JUST WEST OF THE REGION STARTING TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. &&
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS HAD ARRIVED TO THE CT COAST AS OF 7 AM...WHILE STEADY RAINS BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH. SANDY APPEARS TO BE GETTING READY TO TURN TOWARD THE NW IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING UPSTREAM BLOCKING AS AN UPPER HIGH BUILDS WESTWARD INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...AND AS THE STORM FIRST UNDERGOES FUJIWARA INTERACTION WITH AND THEN MERGES WITH A DIGGING CLOSED LOW TO ITS WEST. THIS INFUSION OF BAROCLINIC ENERGY WILL ENABLE SANDY TO MAINTAIN OR INCREASE IN INTENSITY...TRANSFORMING INTO A SEVERE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE AND MAKING LANDFALL ON THE CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN NJ COAST EARLY THIS EVENING. THE ALREADY LARGE WIND FIELD AROUND SANDY SHOULD EXPAND AND INTENSIFY TODAY...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35-45 MPH EXPECTED BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...AND 40-55 MPH THIS EVENING. ALL NWP IN PRETTY CLOSE AGREEMENT ON DEVELOPMENT AND PLACEMENT OF A BAND OF VERY STRONG 925 MB WINDS OF 70-90 KT TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE BY LATE AFTERNOON OVER OUR CWA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS. A SHALLOW MIXED LAYER BELOW THAT...IN COMBINATION WITH POSSIBLE GRAVITY WAVE DUCTING JUST NORTH OF A WARM FRONT DEVELOPING TO THE NORTHEAST OF SANDY...COULD ALLOW A LARGE PORTION OF THESE STRONG WINDS TO MIX DOWN...ESPECIALLY IN HEAVIER RAIN...SO AT LEAST OCCASIONAL GUSTS 60-75 MPH EXPECTED IN NE-E FLOW DURING MID TO LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE THE STORM MAKES LANDFALL. OF EVEN GREATER CONCERN IS A SECOND BAND OF FCST 925 MB WINDS OF SIMILAR STRENGTH ON THE SE FLANK OF THE CYCLONE THAT SHOULD ROTATE UP INTO THE CWA DURING AND JUST AFTER LANDFALL THIS EVENING...INITIALLY IMPACTING SOUTHERN CT AND LONG ISLAND...THEN TRANSLATING WESTWARD INTO NYC METRO AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THIS QUADRANT OF THE STORM AS CAA BEGINS JUST OFF THE DECK...BUT AS LOW LEVEL WAA CONTINUES...SHOULD LEAD TO EVEN MORE EFFICIENT MOMENTUM TRANSFER...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORES OF LONG ISLAND AND CT WHERE WINDS COULD GUST 80 TO PERHAPS 90 MPH. THERE MAY BE A LOW END TORNADO THREAT ACROSS EASTERN CT/LONG ISLAND DURING THIS TIME VIA STRONG LOW LEVEL HELICITY AND DEVELOPMENT OF MARGINAL LOW LEVEL CAPE...NOT ENOUGH FOR THUNDER INITIALLY BUT ENOUGH FOR LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION THAT COULD STRETCH ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND/OR TAP INTO HIGHER MOMENTUM ALOFT. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL STILL BE GUSTING UP TO 45-50 MPH AT DAYBREAK. THE COMBINATION OF EVENT DURATION...SATURATED GROUNDS...AND PARTIAL TO NEARLY FULL TREE CANOPIES...WOULD CAUSE WIDESPREAD DOWNING OF TREES AND POWER LINES...CAUSING DISRUPTION TO POWER AND POSSIBLY TRANSIT FOR AT LEAST SEVERAL DAYS. THESE WINDS WILL ALSO RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT COASTAL IMPACTS...DETAILED IN THE TIDES AND COASTAL FLOODING SECTION. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE STORM INTERACTS WITH INTENSE JET/SHORTWAVE ENERGY...WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES RAINFALL POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. THINKING THE HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS NYC METRO AND NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION...AND IN/NEAR UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND SW CT VIA STRONG OROGRAPHIC LIFT. SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 50S. CONTINUE TO MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS...AS THE EXACT TIMING...PLACEMENT AND INTENSITY OF THE STORM AS IT APPROACHES AND MAKES LANDFALL WILL DETERMINE THE SEVERITY OF IMPACTS IN PARTICULAR LOCATIONS. ALSO...REFER TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR THE LATEST TRACK AND FORECASTS. &&
George Wright is a Certified Consulting Meteorologist for Wright Weather Consulting, LLC. George is also a meteorologist with ABC News and Cablevision News 12. Our website is WrightWeather.com.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 1100 AM EDT MON OCT 29 2012
SYNOPSIS... SANDY...WHOSE CENTER WAS LOCATED ABOUT 340 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF NEW YORK CITY AT 7 AM...CONTINUES TO INCREASE ITS IMPACT ON THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. THE CENTER OF SANDY IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL ON THE NEW JERSEY COAST THIS EVENING...A WORST CASE SCENARIO FOR OUR REGION. CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE TODAY...WITH PROLONGED MAJOR IMPACTS THIS AFTERNOON AND NIGHT... INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS TO HURRICANE FORCE...LIFE THREATENING STORM SURGE...AND POTENTIALLY FLOODING RAINS. THE STORM WILL WEAKEN JUST WEST OF THE REGION STARTING TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. &&
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS HAD ARRIVED TO THE CT COAST AS OF 7 AM...WHILE STEADY RAINS BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH. SANDY APPEARS TO BE GETTING READY TO TURN TOWARD THE NW IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING UPSTREAM BLOCKING AS AN UPPER HIGH BUILDS WESTWARD INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...AND AS THE STORM FIRST UNDERGOES FUJIWARA INTERACTION WITH AND THEN MERGES WITH A DIGGING CLOSED LOW TO ITS WEST. THIS INFUSION OF BAROCLINIC ENERGY WILL ENABLE SANDY TO MAINTAIN OR INCREASE IN INTENSITY...TRANSFORMING INTO A SEVERE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE AND MAKING LANDFALL ON THE CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN NJ COAST EARLY THIS EVENING. THE ALREADY LARGE WIND FIELD AROUND SANDY SHOULD EXPAND AND INTENSIFY TODAY...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35-45 MPH EXPECTED BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...AND 40-55 MPH THIS EVENING. ALL NWP IN PRETTY CLOSE AGREEMENT ON DEVELOPMENT AND PLACEMENT OF A BAND OF VERY STRONG 925 MB WINDS OF 70-90 KT TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE BY LATE AFTERNOON OVER OUR CWA...ESPECIALLY ACROSS COASTAL SECTIONS. A SHALLOW MIXED LAYER BELOW THAT...IN COMBINATION WITH POSSIBLE GRAVITY WAVE DUCTING JUST NORTH OF A WARM FRONT DEVELOPING TO THE NORTHEAST OF SANDY...COULD ALLOW A LARGE PORTION OF THESE STRONG WINDS TO MIX DOWN...ESPECIALLY IN HEAVIER RAIN...SO AT LEAST OCCASIONAL GUSTS 60-75 MPH EXPECTED IN NE-E FLOW DURING MID TO LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE THE STORM MAKES LANDFALL. OF EVEN GREATER CONCERN IS A SECOND BAND OF FCST 925 MB WINDS OF SIMILAR STRENGTH ON THE SE FLANK OF THE CYCLONE THAT SHOULD ROTATE UP INTO THE CWA DURING AND JUST AFTER LANDFALL THIS EVENING...INITIALLY IMPACTING SOUTHERN CT AND LONG ISLAND...THEN TRANSLATING WESTWARD INTO NYC METRO AND THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY. STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THIS QUADRANT OF THE STORM AS CAA BEGINS JUST OFF THE DECK...BUT AS LOW LEVEL WAA CONTINUES...SHOULD LEAD TO EVEN MORE EFFICIENT MOMENTUM TRANSFER...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORES OF LONG ISLAND AND CT WHERE WINDS COULD GUST 80 TO PERHAPS 90 MPH. THERE MAY BE A LOW END TORNADO THREAT ACROSS EASTERN CT/LONG ISLAND DURING THIS TIME VIA STRONG LOW LEVEL HELICITY AND DEVELOPMENT OF MARGINAL LOW LEVEL CAPE...NOT ENOUGH FOR THUNDER INITIALLY BUT ENOUGH FOR LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION THAT COULD STRETCH ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND/OR TAP INTO HIGHER MOMENTUM ALOFT. WINDS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL STILL BE GUSTING UP TO 45-50 MPH AT DAYBREAK. THE COMBINATION OF EVENT DURATION...SATURATED GROUNDS...AND PARTIAL TO NEARLY FULL TREE CANOPIES...WOULD CAUSE WIDESPREAD DOWNING OF TREES AND POWER LINES...CAUSING DISRUPTION TO POWER AND POSSIBLY TRANSIT FOR AT LEAST SEVERAL DAYS. THESE WINDS WILL ALSO RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT COASTAL IMPACTS...DETAILED IN THE TIDES AND COASTAL FLOODING SECTION. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE STORM INTERACTS WITH INTENSE JET/SHORTWAVE ENERGY...WITH 2 TO 4 INCHES RAINFALL POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. THINKING THE HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS NYC METRO AND NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION...AND IN/NEAR UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND SW CT VIA STRONG OROGRAPHIC LIFT. SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 50S. CONTINUE TO MONITOR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS...AS THE EXACT TIMING...PLACEMENT AND INTENSITY OF THE STORM AS IT APPROACHES AND MAKES LANDFALL WILL DETERMINE THE SEVERITY OF IMPACTS IN PARTICULAR LOCATIONS. ALSO...REFER TO THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FOR THE LATEST TRACK AND FORECASTS. &&
George Wright is a Certified Consulting Meteorologist for Wright Weather Consulting, LLC. George is also a meteorologist with ABC News and Cablevision News 12. Our website is WrightWeather.com.
VERY POWERFUL SANDY STRENGTHENING..WINDS 90 MPH HEADING TOWARDS SOUTHERN NJ COAST RECORD CATASTROPHIC FLOODING
This is a very powerful storm that has never been seen in modern times. The circulation extends from Quebec to Cuba and out to the Great Lakes. The winds are already gusting to 46 mph in Boston and 58 mph at La Guardia Airport in Queens. The storm is forecast to become extratropical later today. Heavy flooding rains are occurring over southern NJ to eastern VA, MD and DE. This is caused by the cold air advection on the west side of the storm and overunning warm, moist air from the storm riding over it. The height of the water at the Raritan Bay and the Arthur Kill reached the top of the bulkhead and splashed over it in places.
THE WORST OF THE STORM WILL BE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING, BEACH EROSION, DAMAGING WINDS TONIGHT AT HIGH TIDE WHICH OCCURS ABOUT 8 TO 9 PM THIS EVENING. RECORD FLOODING IS FORECAST AT SANDY HOOK, WESTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND, THE NEW JERSEY COAST, THE BATTERY, ARTHUR KILL, RARITAN BAY AND THE SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND.
George Wright is a Certified Consulting Meteorologist for Wright Weather Consulting, LLC. George is also a meteorologist with ABC News and Cablevision News 12. Our website is WrightWeather.com. Follow George on Twitter.
THE WORST OF THE STORM WILL BE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING, BEACH EROSION, DAMAGING WINDS TONIGHT AT HIGH TIDE WHICH OCCURS ABOUT 8 TO 9 PM THIS EVENING. RECORD FLOODING IS FORECAST AT SANDY HOOK, WESTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND, THE NEW JERSEY COAST, THE BATTERY, ARTHUR KILL, RARITAN BAY AND THE SOUTH SHORE OF LONG ISLAND.
George Wright is a Certified Consulting Meteorologist for Wright Weather Consulting, LLC. George is also a meteorologist with ABC News and Cablevision News 12. Our website is WrightWeather.com. Follow George on Twitter.
11 PM Update on Hurricane Sandy
Sandy strengthened slightly during the past few hours. The central pressure is 950 mb or 28.05 inches. A portion of the latest NHC bulletin is below.
BULLETIN HURRICANE SANDY ADVISORY NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1100 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012 ...
SANDY ABOUT TO START ITS NORTHWARD TURN...EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE...COASTAL HURRICANE WINDS AND HEAVY APPALACHIAN SNOWS...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...
INFORMATION
LOCATION...34.5N 70.5W ABOUT 290 MI...E OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 470 MI...SSE OF NEW YORK CITY MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.05 INCHES
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SANDY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.5 WEST. SANDY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST EXPECTED ON MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK... THE CENTER OF SANDY WILL MOVE OVER THE COAST OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SANDY IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION INTO A FRONTAL OR WINTERTIME LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PRIOR TO LANDFALL. HOWEVER...THIS TRANSITION WILL NOT BE ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM...AND IN FACT...A LITTLE STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THIS PROCESS. SANDY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AFTER MOVING INLAND.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES... 280 KM...MAINLY TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 520 MILES...835 KM. A NATIONAL OCEAN SERVICE STATION AT THE WILLOUGHBY DEGAUSSING STATION NEAR NORFOLK NAVAL STATION VIRGINIA RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF
45 MPH...72 KM/H...WITH A GUST TO 53 MPH...85 KM/H. A WEATHERFLOW STATION AT THIMBLE SHOALS VIRGINIA RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 44 MPH...70 KM/H...AND A WIND GUST OF 52 MPH...83 KM/H.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON AIR FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT DATA IS 950 MB...28.05 INCHES
George Wright is a Certified Consulting Meteorologist for Wright Weather Consulting, LLC. George is also a meteorologist with ABC News and Cablevision News 12. Our website is WrightWeather.com.
BULLETIN HURRICANE SANDY ADVISORY NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1100 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2012 ...
SANDY ABOUT TO START ITS NORTHWARD TURN...EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE...COASTAL HURRICANE WINDS AND HEAVY APPALACHIAN SNOWS...
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...
INFORMATION
LOCATION...34.5N 70.5W ABOUT 290 MI...E OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 470 MI...SSE OF NEW YORK CITY MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.05 INCHES
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SANDY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.5 WEST. SANDY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST EXPECTED ON MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK... THE CENTER OF SANDY WILL MOVE OVER THE COAST OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SANDY IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION INTO A FRONTAL OR WINTERTIME LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PRIOR TO LANDFALL. HOWEVER...THIS TRANSITION WILL NOT BE ACCOMPANIED BY A WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM...AND IN FACT...A LITTLE STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THIS PROCESS. SANDY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AFTER MOVING INLAND.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES... 280 KM...MAINLY TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 520 MILES...835 KM. A NATIONAL OCEAN SERVICE STATION AT THE WILLOUGHBY DEGAUSSING STATION NEAR NORFOLK NAVAL STATION VIRGINIA RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF
45 MPH...72 KM/H...WITH A GUST TO 53 MPH...85 KM/H. A WEATHERFLOW STATION AT THIMBLE SHOALS VIRGINIA RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 44 MPH...70 KM/H...AND A WIND GUST OF 52 MPH...83 KM/H.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON AIR FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT DATA IS 950 MB...28.05 INCHES
George Wright is a Certified Consulting Meteorologist for Wright Weather Consulting, LLC. George is also a meteorologist with ABC News and Cablevision News 12. Our website is WrightWeather.com.
Sunday, October 28, 2012
Latest GFS and NAM Model Runs for Hurricane Sandy
Both the GFS and NAM are in agreement on the track of very dangerous Hurricane Sandy. The storm is now forecast to make landfall Monday night around 8 PM near northern Ocean and southern Monmouth Counties. The wind field from this storm is huge with tropical force winds extending over 300 to 400 miles. At 850 MB the storm extends from Maine to Florida and westward to the Great Lakes. A surge of 5 to 11 feet can be expected in and around New York City with a 4 to 8 foot surge along the Jersey Shore.
A strong Rex block to the east of the storm over the western Atlantic will keep the storm from moving to the northeast and out to sea. A stationary front with cold air is present just to the west along the east coast. A huge upper trough will dive down and capture the hurricane and intensify it into a hybrid "super storm" that will make landfall right along the central Jersey Shore. Make preparations and evacuate if told to do so.
George Wright is a Certified Consulting Meteorologist for Wright Weather Consulting, LLC. George is also a meteorologist with ABC News and Cablevision News 12. Our website is WrightWeather.com.
George Wright is a Certified Consulting Meteorologist for Wright Weather Consulting, LLC. George is also a meteorologist with ABC News and Cablevision News 12. Our website is WrightWeather.com.
Latest Update on Hurricane Sandy...Landfall Monday in New Jersey
The latest National Hurricane Center storm track takes the storm through the central Jersey Shore between Atlantic City and Asbury Park. This track is a worse case scenario for Ocean and Monmouth Counties, Raritan Bay, New York City, western Long Island Sound and Nassau County of Long Island. Coastal flooding and storm surge will surpass what Irene produced last year. Storm Warnings, High Wind Warnings, Flood Warnings and Coastal Flood Warnings are in effect throughout New Jersey, New York, Long Island and Connecticut. This is a very dangerous storm with extreme low pressure and winds that will gust to over 80 mph. The full moon occurs at 3:50 p.m. on Monday. Two high tide cycles will occur during this storm on Monday around 8 or 9 am in the morning and around 8 or 9 pm in the evening.
George Wright is a Certified Consulting Meteorologist for Wright Weather Consulting, LLC. George is also a meteorologist with ABC News and Cablevision News 12. Our website is WrightWeather.com. Follow George Wright on Twitter @gwweather.
George Wright is a Certified Consulting Meteorologist for Wright Weather Consulting, LLC. George is also a meteorologist with ABC News and Cablevision News 12. Our website is WrightWeather.com. Follow George Wright on Twitter @gwweather.
Saturday, October 27, 2012
Record Coastal Flooding Expected from Sandy
The discussion from the National Weather Service is forecasting the potential for record coastal flooding in Monmouth and Middlesex Counties of New Jersey as Sandy makes landfall from Belmar to Atlantic City. The Coastal Hazard Message from the Mount Holly NWS is below.
COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 748 AM EDT SAT OCT 27 2012
...THE EVOLUTION OF TROPICAL CYCLONE SANDY INTO A POWERFUL STORM CROSSING THE NEW JERSEY COAST MONDAY EVENING WILL MEAN AT LEAST TWO TIDE CYCLES OF POTENTIALLY MODERATE TO MAJOR FLOODING... .A COASTAL FLOOD OF RECORD IS POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN NEW JERSEY WATERS IF THE TIMING OF SANDY COINCIDES WITH THE MONDAY EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE AND THE CYCLONE PASSES ACROSS THE NEW JERSEY COAST BETWEEN ATLANTIC CITY AND BELMAR.
MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND- ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC- COASTAL OCEAN-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON- 748 AM EDT SAT OCT 27 2012 ...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...
* LOCATION...THE ATLANTIC COAST OF NEW JERSEY. * COASTAL FLOODING...MODERATE TO MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED FOR BOTH HIGH TIDE CYCLES ON MONDAY...PRECEDED BY COMPARATIVELY MINOR FLOOD EPISODES SUNDAY MORNING AND SUNDAY EVENING. THIS WILL BE LONG DURATION TIDAL FLOODING AND PROBABLE ROAD CLOSURES AND POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGE WHERE WATER ENCROACHES ON PARKING LOTS AND BUILDINGS. * AT...SANDY HOOK THE PRIMARY TIMES OF HIGH TIDE ARE 801 AM MONDAY AND 822 PM MONDAY EVENING. AT ATLANTIC CITY THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE ARE 741 AM AND 8 PM MONDAY EVENING. AT CAPE MAY THE APPROXIMATE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE ARE 849 AM MONDAY AND 909 PM MONDAY EVENING. * SEAS...WILL BE 15 TO POSSIBLY 20 FEET. THIS ADDED OVER-WASH WILL THREATEN CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO BEACHFRONT PROPERTIES. * RAINFALL...4 TO POSSIBLY 8 INCHES OF RAINFALL BY MONDAY EVENING WILL ADD TO THE TIDAL FLOODING AS RIVERS WILL NOT BE ABLE TO DISCHARGE EXCESS RUNOFF INTO THE 3 TO 5 FOOT TIDAL SURGE AIDED BY AN INCOMING WIND GUSTING TO 60 MPH ALONG THE COAST. THIS INCREASES THE ODDS OF MAJOR FLOODING! SOME OF THE FORECAST INFORMATION INDICATES SANDY HOOK MAY SEE A COASTAL FLOOD OF RECORD MONDAY EVENING IF THE STORM CROSSES THE COAST SOUTH OF SANDY HOOK NEAR THE TIME OF THE MONDAY EVENING HIGH TIDE. * DURATION...MODERATE OR GREATER TIDAL FLO0DING MAY LAST 3 TO 5 HOURS DURING THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE! * PRECURSOR FLOOD EPISODE...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS LIKELY DURING THE SUNDAY HIGH TIDES CYCLES BUT THAT WILL BE DWARFED BY WHAT FOLLOWS MONDAY. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE OR MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING. PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO UPDATED FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS AND TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. FOLLOW THE RECOMMENDATIONS OF LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS. FOR A LIST OF THE IMPACT OF DIFFERENT TIDE HEIGHTS IN YOUR COUNTY PLEASE GO TO WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/TIDES.HTM (ALL IN LOWER CASE).
George Wright is a Certified Consulting Meteorologist for Wright Weather Consulting, LLC. George is also a meteorologist with ABC News and Cablevision News 12. Our website is WrightWeather.com.
COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 748 AM EDT SAT OCT 27 2012
...THE EVOLUTION OF TROPICAL CYCLONE SANDY INTO A POWERFUL STORM CROSSING THE NEW JERSEY COAST MONDAY EVENING WILL MEAN AT LEAST TWO TIDE CYCLES OF POTENTIALLY MODERATE TO MAJOR FLOODING... .A COASTAL FLOOD OF RECORD IS POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN NEW JERSEY WATERS IF THE TIMING OF SANDY COINCIDES WITH THE MONDAY EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE AND THE CYCLONE PASSES ACROSS THE NEW JERSEY COAST BETWEEN ATLANTIC CITY AND BELMAR.
MIDDLESEX-WESTERN MONMOUTH-EASTERN MONMOUTH-OCEAN-CUMBERLAND- ATLANTIC-CAPE MAY-ATLANTIC COASTAL CAPE MAY-COASTAL ATLANTIC- COASTAL OCEAN-SOUTHEASTERN BURLINGTON- 748 AM EDT SAT OCT 27 2012 ...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...
* LOCATION...THE ATLANTIC COAST OF NEW JERSEY. * COASTAL FLOODING...MODERATE TO MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED FOR BOTH HIGH TIDE CYCLES ON MONDAY...PRECEDED BY COMPARATIVELY MINOR FLOOD EPISODES SUNDAY MORNING AND SUNDAY EVENING. THIS WILL BE LONG DURATION TIDAL FLOODING AND PROBABLE ROAD CLOSURES AND POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGE WHERE WATER ENCROACHES ON PARKING LOTS AND BUILDINGS. * AT...SANDY HOOK THE PRIMARY TIMES OF HIGH TIDE ARE 801 AM MONDAY AND 822 PM MONDAY EVENING. AT ATLANTIC CITY THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE ARE 741 AM AND 8 PM MONDAY EVENING. AT CAPE MAY THE APPROXIMATE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE ARE 849 AM MONDAY AND 909 PM MONDAY EVENING. * SEAS...WILL BE 15 TO POSSIBLY 20 FEET. THIS ADDED OVER-WASH WILL THREATEN CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE TO BEACHFRONT PROPERTIES. * RAINFALL...4 TO POSSIBLY 8 INCHES OF RAINFALL BY MONDAY EVENING WILL ADD TO THE TIDAL FLOODING AS RIVERS WILL NOT BE ABLE TO DISCHARGE EXCESS RUNOFF INTO THE 3 TO 5 FOOT TIDAL SURGE AIDED BY AN INCOMING WIND GUSTING TO 60 MPH ALONG THE COAST. THIS INCREASES THE ODDS OF MAJOR FLOODING! SOME OF THE FORECAST INFORMATION INDICATES SANDY HOOK MAY SEE A COASTAL FLOOD OF RECORD MONDAY EVENING IF THE STORM CROSSES THE COAST SOUTH OF SANDY HOOK NEAR THE TIME OF THE MONDAY EVENING HIGH TIDE. * DURATION...MODERATE OR GREATER TIDAL FLO0DING MAY LAST 3 TO 5 HOURS DURING THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE! * PRECURSOR FLOOD EPISODE...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS LIKELY DURING THE SUNDAY HIGH TIDES CYCLES BUT THAT WILL BE DWARFED BY WHAT FOLLOWS MONDAY. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE OR MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING. PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO UPDATED FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS AND TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. FOLLOW THE RECOMMENDATIONS OF LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS. FOR A LIST OF THE IMPACT OF DIFFERENT TIDE HEIGHTS IN YOUR COUNTY PLEASE GO TO WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/TIDES.HTM (ALL IN LOWER CASE).
George Wright is a Certified Consulting Meteorologist for Wright Weather Consulting, LLC. George is also a meteorologist with ABC News and Cablevision News 12. Our website is WrightWeather.com.
Sandy Now a Tropical Storm...Storm Forecast to Make Landfall in New Jersey Monday...
The latest NHC forecast track for Sandy indicates that the storm is forecast to make a direct hit along the New Jersey coast. A storm surge of 5 to 10 feet is possible along the coast of New York, New Jersey and Long Island. The NOAA Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (HPC) has noted that this storm will likely have the lowest pressure on record in New Jersey. The models are now in agreement and the European model model is now considered to be the preferred model for the storm's track. Here the the HPC discussion regarding Sandy:
HURRICANE SANDY =============== PREFERENCE: 00Z ECMWF/12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN COMPROMISE BY DEFAULT CENTRAL PRESSURE CLOSEST TO THE 00Z ECMWF/00Z NAM
A COMPROMISE OF THE 00Z ECMWF/12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN IS THE CLOSEST SOLUTION TO THE NHC TRACK, AND PREFERRED BY DEFAULT. FOR CENTRAL PRESSURE, THE WEAKEST SOLUTIONS (THE 00Z NAM AND 00Z ECMWF) ARE LIKELY CLOSEST TO REALITY, THOUGH THEY WOULD STILL BRING SANDY INTO NEW JERSEY WITH A NEAR-RECORD CENTRAL PRESSURE. MULTI-DAY TRENDS INCREASINGLY FAVOR A LESS EXTREME CENTRAL PRESSURE (WITH THE RANGE IN THE DETERMINISTIC/NON-HURRICANE GUIDANCE NOW BETWEEN 947 AND 957 HPA), WITH THE GUIDANCE TRENDING TOWARDS A CENTRAL PRESSURE IN THE 950S HPA. CONSIDERING THE ABOVE, WE FAVOR A CENTRAL PRESSURE NO DEEPER THAN THE UPPER 950S HPA AT LANDFALL...WITH MID 950S HPA EXPECTED AS IT CROSSES THE GULF STREAM MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WAS COORDINATED WITH THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER (OPC). DEEPER PIECES OF GUIDANCE THAN THE PREFERENCE ARE LIKELY OVERPLAYING THE DEPTH AND DEGREE OF PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION, PARTIALLY DUE TO THEIR REDEVELOPMENT OF CENTRAL CONVECTION (SEEN ON THE UKMET JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL ONCE THE SYSTEM IS OVER THE COLD SHELF WATERS), WHICH PER NHC SEEMS UNLIKELY DUE TO PERSISTENT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR NEAR ITS CENTER WHICH IS CAUSING ITS CURRENT RESEMBLANCE TO A LARGE OCCLUDED, NON-TROPICAL LOW. SEE THE LATEST DISCUSSIONS/ADVISORIES FROM THE NHC CONCERNING THE FUTURE OF SANDY.
George Wright is a Certified Consulting Meteorologist for Wright Weather Consulting, LLC. George is also a meteorologist with ABC News and Cablevision News 12. Our website is WrightWeather.com.
HURRICANE SANDY =============== PREFERENCE: 00Z ECMWF/12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN COMPROMISE BY DEFAULT CENTRAL PRESSURE CLOSEST TO THE 00Z ECMWF/00Z NAM
A COMPROMISE OF THE 00Z ECMWF/12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN IS THE CLOSEST SOLUTION TO THE NHC TRACK, AND PREFERRED BY DEFAULT. FOR CENTRAL PRESSURE, THE WEAKEST SOLUTIONS (THE 00Z NAM AND 00Z ECMWF) ARE LIKELY CLOSEST TO REALITY, THOUGH THEY WOULD STILL BRING SANDY INTO NEW JERSEY WITH A NEAR-RECORD CENTRAL PRESSURE. MULTI-DAY TRENDS INCREASINGLY FAVOR A LESS EXTREME CENTRAL PRESSURE (WITH THE RANGE IN THE DETERMINISTIC/NON-HURRICANE GUIDANCE NOW BETWEEN 947 AND 957 HPA), WITH THE GUIDANCE TRENDING TOWARDS A CENTRAL PRESSURE IN THE 950S HPA. CONSIDERING THE ABOVE, WE FAVOR A CENTRAL PRESSURE NO DEEPER THAN THE UPPER 950S HPA AT LANDFALL...WITH MID 950S HPA EXPECTED AS IT CROSSES THE GULF STREAM MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WAS COORDINATED WITH THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER (OPC). DEEPER PIECES OF GUIDANCE THAN THE PREFERENCE ARE LIKELY OVERPLAYING THE DEPTH AND DEGREE OF PRECIPITATION PRODUCTION, PARTIALLY DUE TO THEIR REDEVELOPMENT OF CENTRAL CONVECTION (SEEN ON THE UKMET JUST PRIOR TO LANDFALL ONCE THE SYSTEM IS OVER THE COLD SHELF WATERS), WHICH PER NHC SEEMS UNLIKELY DUE TO PERSISTENT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR NEAR ITS CENTER WHICH IS CAUSING ITS CURRENT RESEMBLANCE TO A LARGE OCCLUDED, NON-TROPICAL LOW. SEE THE LATEST DISCUSSIONS/ADVISORIES FROM THE NHC CONCERNING THE FUTURE OF SANDY.
George Wright is a Certified Consulting Meteorologist for Wright Weather Consulting, LLC. George is also a meteorologist with ABC News and Cablevision News 12. Our website is WrightWeather.com.
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