Winter Storm Warning continues for northern VA, DE, MD, southeastern PA, central and southern NJ for a MAJOR winter storm that can dump 12 to 24" of snow in these areas. A Blizzard Warning is in effect for eastern DE and coastal NJ from Ocean County to Cape May county for strong winds and blinding snow that will pile up late tonight into Saturday evening.
NYC metro area and Long Island can expect to remain on the northern fringe of the storm with 1 to 3" expected with higher amounts across central NJ and Staten Island. Any slight change of 10 or 20 miles can affect the amount of snow the NYC metro area receives. The models have been in agreement on this storm for the past 24 to 36 hours for the most part keeping the track (see NAM maps above) south of Cape Hatteras which is in response to the "blocking" pattern over eastern Canada and New England that forced the dynamics of this storm to the south. This is the second major storm to track in this manner this season and the 2nd major storm for Washington and Baltimore.
If we examine past 500 mb and surface weather maps for storms that track up the coast and dump major snows across NYC and the northeast, the flow in the upper levels is not blocked over eastern Canada but the jetstream flows pretty much parallel to the coast through Newfoundland and beyond. This enables the moisture and the storm to move northward or northeastward. This "cyclonic vortex" over Canada that we have seen this week has keep the flow from the northwest over the Northeast and NYC which is why the northern advance of precipitation and the storm track is well to the south. More on this storm later today.
George Wright is a Certified Consulting Meteorologist and President of Wright Weather Consulting, Inc. George is also a meteorologist with News 12 Cablevision. Our website is WrightWeather.com.
NYC metro area and Long Island can expect to remain on the northern fringe of the storm with 1 to 3" expected with higher amounts across central NJ and Staten Island. Any slight change of 10 or 20 miles can affect the amount of snow the NYC metro area receives. The models have been in agreement on this storm for the past 24 to 36 hours for the most part keeping the track (see NAM maps above) south of Cape Hatteras which is in response to the "blocking" pattern over eastern Canada and New England that forced the dynamics of this storm to the south. This is the second major storm to track in this manner this season and the 2nd major storm for Washington and Baltimore.
If we examine past 500 mb and surface weather maps for storms that track up the coast and dump major snows across NYC and the northeast, the flow in the upper levels is not blocked over eastern Canada but the jetstream flows pretty much parallel to the coast through Newfoundland and beyond. This enables the moisture and the storm to move northward or northeastward. This "cyclonic vortex" over Canada that we have seen this week has keep the flow from the northwest over the Northeast and NYC which is why the northern advance of precipitation and the storm track is well to the south. More on this storm later today.
George Wright is a Certified Consulting Meteorologist and President of Wright Weather Consulting, Inc. George is also a meteorologist with News 12 Cablevision. Our website is WrightWeather.com.
